When the "Event" doesn't look like the SHTF?

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    • #96599
      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
      Moderator

        Not all “Events” necessarily mean all modern conveniences will be gone!

        Sure there is the classic slow slide to tyranny, but what if it was a sudden tyrannical takeover, regardless of the justification for it (terrorist attack, etc…)?

        Are you going to head for the hills regardless?

        Is your family or group ready to live off the land while everyone else has TV, electricity, and town has a normal appearance?

        During a Red Dawn invasion it would be easy to convince them.

        If you become a criminal overnight when do you decide to leave?

        How long do you have to decide?

        Will others really fight?

        I suspect many will be trying to avoid being the first in their area.

        What if your the first in your area to get the “Visit” by authorities?

        Someone will get to be first, does it really have to be high profile ones first?

        Maybe you are the high profile one having attended training, practiced regularly, and are generally really prepared vice the average so called prepper.

        I am certainly not asking everyone to give their detailed plans, but have you even considered this scenario?

      • #96600
        Andrew
        Participant

          No, but I have considered the possibility of a LAV, MRAP, or Hummer with a .50 blocking of each end of the block while the local gendarmes go door to door, with a squad of infantry, backing them up as they demand to search your house for weapons, other contraband, or whatever.

          If you’re very lucky, you are out the backdoor, on foot, and hopefully have your loved ones with you.

          You might be able to sneak back in, but who knows what will be missing, or if the neighbor who doesn’t like you, will dime you out.

          Not happy musings. :negative:

        • #96601
          Joe (G.W.N.S.)
          Moderator

            What if their stated reason for coming to get you isn’t because your a right wing militia terrorist, but you have “kiddie porn” on your computer or your a “child molester” (planted or made up)?

            Historically there is no better way to label someone guilty until proven innocent.

            Let’s say you slip through their attempt to pick you up.

            Are your family, friends, and group going to support you or turn their back on you because of this label?

            How many people could get picked up before we realized it, by such simple misdirection?

          • #96602
            Joe (G.W.N.S.)
            Moderator

              Regardless of the accusations, what will your wife do when threatened with similar charges?

              Does that answer change if your young children are used as leverage?

              How will she deal with the threat of permanent loss of children after a subtle or not so subtle reminder of the high incidence of physical and/or sexual abuse in the foster system?

              Do you think these are unrealistic possibilities?

            • #96603
              hellokitty
              Participant

                i hope that I would have the courage to fight even if it means that I will lose everything. I think is a good idea to mentally prepare for that possibility. Mental rehearsal if you will. If you are unjustly targeted, do you accept it and suck on it. Or do you say Fuck you, I’m not gonna take it. It will be a gut check for sure.

                HEAT 1(CTT) X 3
                HEAT 2 (CP) X1
                FOF X3
                OPFOR X2
                CLC X2
                RIFLEMAN

              • #96604
                Anonymous
                Inactive

                  <rant>

                  I wouldn’t expect any event to look like Red Dawn or One Second After. If it winds up being a domestic political upheaval, it won’t be a grid-down scenario, or if it is, there will still be large parts of the country disconnected from the conflict. Raqqa is an Islamic State hellhole right now, and Aleppo and Kobane look like the surface of the Moon, but Latakia was largely untouched by the civil war in Syria until Islamic State bombed it two days ago. The Peshmerga in Iraq literally commute back and forth between home and the frontline. Pro-regime areas would largely be unscathed outside of hit-and-run guerrilla attacks, hopefully conducted against legitimate military targets.

                  God forbid it were to happen, depending on where you are, the lights will still work, you will still have an Internet connection (How many rebel groups are online right now?), there will still be running water. A state that fails to provide those creature comforts risks losing legitimacy, they’ll put a priority on keeping the utilities up and running. Comfortable people don’t join insurgencies. Obviously opposition-held areas will lack the same level of comfort, it then becomes the job of the opposition to restore those services and gain legitimacy as an alternative to the regime government. (You have a rebel army? Who will be the civil administrators?)

                  Depending on your place in the country at the moment (and your political affiliation), civil disobedience might be the best approach, other places armed force might be more appropriate.

                  Here’s some required reading, for the un- and underintitiated:

                  Rex 84 called for the roundup of citizens deemed to be national security threats, back then one proposed scenario for implementation was widespread protests against intervention in Latin America.

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rex_84

                  …How would they know who to snatch? If you’re post in places like MVT you’re probably already here as well.

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Core

                  In the event of a large scale, cohesive uprising, SWAT raids would be the instrument of choice. And once things get popping and the ball is rolling they don’t even need to plant drugs or kiddie porn on you anymore. Now Rex 84 was just a plan, there’s no historical precedent in the US for a wide-scale roundup, you say?

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_Raids

                  Simply being snatched up would likely scare a lot of folks into quitting the movement or becoming informants – in which case you don’t need to immediately snatch the leadership, hell, you might be better off leaving them alone for a while to play games with. Which winds up looking like this – if anyone watched that Black Panther documentary I linked a while back you might remember…

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COINTELPRO

                  (It even looks scarier in all caps!)

                  I think the idea of a dictator taking over the US more farfetched, I’d much sooner expect a strict oligarchy, think the Communist Party’s absolute control in China or the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia. No single ruler, so as to give the veneer of political succession and democracy, but power concentrated with the political caste, with no real accountability except to vested business interests. I don’t expect Americans to extend their arms in Roman salutes to sing along to the Donald Trump Lied or raise clenched fists to the Clintonationale, that’s too much power in the hands of a single individual for ruling class, but we might find ourselves heading towards a right-wing security state or a left-wing nanny state, both tyrannical but in different forms. It would take a large-scale domestic terrorist incident like 9/11 or the Reichstag fire to scare Americans towards dictatorship quickly, though.

                  </rant>

                • #96605
                  wildbill
                  Participant

                    Raid

                    It’s happening!

                    Not here!

                    This can’t happen here!

                    The call. THAT call. The terror in the woman’s voice.

                    “THEY’RE HERE! PLEASE HELP US! GOD HELP US!”

                    You know that no matter how fast you drive over these roads – roads you know like the back of your hand, you’re going to be too late! You know her, God, you know her. You know her husband, and you’ve known them for years. The desperation in her voice, the sheer terror, and the screams as you hear the door to their house crash open, the shouts to “get down on the floor, get down on the floor!”

                    The phone goes dead. Oh God, I am not going to make it in time! You press harder on the gas pedal, but you know it is already too late.

                    This isn’t some random person. This is someone you know; not a close friend, but someone who grew up in your community. They seemed like a really nice couple. He was a little strange, always wearing that camouflage jacket and talking about the government. You know the type, the “tin foil hat people”, the “conspiracy theorists”. Well, you had always just chalked it up to PTSD from all those tours over there. But when they really needed you, you were not able to help. You were all the way on the other side of the county. Your county. And they needed you!

                    The screams are still ringing in your ears; I’m going to be too late! Desperate thoughts stream through your head. Just let it be a home invasion, just a robbery, take the money and go, leave them alone, they are good people.

                    But in your gut, you know that is not what is going to happen. Not here. Not now. THEY have finally come to your community, and you were not ready. Why had you not seen this coming? The couple on the other end of that phone had seen it coming and had tried to warn you, but you would not listen. Why didn’t you listen? You keep saying to yourself that this happens in other places – not here, not here! This is something that occurs over there: Europe, South America, Mexico, not here! Now you know that it has arrived and you were not ready; you had not done your job!

                    With the telephone screams still ringing in your ears, you yell at yourself, “This is my job — NO — this is who I am! I have been like this my whole life, I don’t know any other way!” All your life you stood up to the bullies, the bad people, and you came to the rescue. You were John Wayne, Superman, Rambo, and you were everybody’s friend and protector. But where were you tonight? Why weren’t you there to help?

                    Why, why, why, were you not there?

                    Why were you not better prepared?

                    It’s too late; they’re gone. The black vehicles with the heavily armed masked men are gone. You were too late to stop them.

                    Too late!

                    Evidence that they were here is scattered all around you – the broken door, the overturned furniture, the smashed plates. Too late and unprepared, you think, “This doesn’t happen here, this can’t happen, not here!” The terrified neighbors are peering out from behind closed curtains staring at you, accusingly; you let them down, YOU LET THEM DOWN!

                    On the floor is a smashed picture frame, with the couple staring back at you, their eyes asking why you weren’t listening when they told you THEY would be coming. Why didn’t you listen? You ask yourself – what was that quote he kept telling you? Something he had read once; something that he thought would happen again in our lifetime, something that scared him. Now you know what he meant, and now it scares you. How did it go again? Oh yeah, something about different groups of people disappearing and nobody saying anything; what was that last line . . . “When they came for me, there was no one left to speak out.” Has it come to that, is it true?

                    God help us if it is.

                    What was the other thing he would say when he saw you on the streets making your rounds?

                    “We took an oath, we took an oath.”

                    Yeah you took one, but did you really? Did you think about what you were saying, did you just mouth the words, or did you truly mean it?

                    He said that his oath wasn’t done. You knew he meant it when he said his oath expired when he died.

                    Did it expire tonight?

                    You hear those cries for help again ringing in your ears. Oh God, you swore an oath, YOU SWORE AN OATH!

                    Is it too late? Can you stop this from happening again? You must. You do not want to hear those screams and cries for help again, only to find they have been taken by THEM, joining the ranks of the DISAPPEARED.

                    You look into the eyes of your neighbors, your friends, the citizens of your county who put their trust in you, and you think to yourself, I’m a County Sheriff. I took an OATH, and I will not let this happen again in my county.

                    NOT ON MY WATCH!

                    Not on your watch dear reader? Are you sure?

                    Currently, THEY are the good guys, but what happens when their orders change? Will THEY follow their orders? Are you willing to bet your freedom on it?

                    Their orders are changing and we are letting it happen, all in the name of security. We have to have security, right? Better to let them bend a few rules, right? You’re a good citizen, they would never come after you, right?

                    What if you are wrong? What happens if THEY are wrong? What if you are falsely accused? What if it is all a misunderstanding? Who will you turn to, who will come to your aid, who has sworn an oath to protect you and your rights? Will your county sheriff stand up for you? Will he have backup? Will the state support him; will the state defend your rights? Are you sure, really sure?

                    Won’t you feel safer if you are prepared for that day, when reason, rights, and liberties are thrown aside and THEY come for you?

                    Is it time to declare, “This will not happen in my community, my county, my state!”

                    NOT ON MY WATCH!

                  • #96606
                    RRS
                    Participant

                      You want to see a well run slide into dictatorship, look at Turkey, Ergodan makes the Obama cult look like the Girl Scout cookie sales crew.

                      Going forward as we look for the “Event” I will bet a good fiat dollar that you will come to the conclusion that the biggest obstacle we face is from the “take me last” conservatives.

                    • #96607
                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                      Moderator

                        …they don’t even need to plant drugs or kiddie porn on you anymore.

                        I think you are missing the point, it’s not about charging people with any crime. It’s about disinformation to delay possible push back.

                        Using your spouse against you for a sound bite to add to the disinformation, not for real testimony in court.

                        They do not have the numbers to conduct a nationwide sweep of possible troublemakers!

                        See Interesting Threats and Numbers and they have less numbers now due to current military drawdown.

                        If even a hint of “their coming for the militia (insert any group)” got out they would have armed resistance within hours or less.

                        Now if they obscure things with picking up people under the guise of various horrendous crimes it buys them time to get more accomplished before the “Resistance Rises.”

                        They are also more creative than just kiddie porn and drugs. Have a Hispanic name, maybe you were involved in illegal aliens or human trafficking. Again not to actually charge you with anything, just buying time.

                        It’s happening!

                        Can’t defend each other without being there.

                        Which also brings up an important point. If you can’t just walk/run out the door with a moments notice your not ready. No caches or alternative resupply? Your not ready! Most people couldn’t get out with a days notice.

                        I think too many are expecting a clear cut choice that may not be available.

                      • #96608
                        Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                        Moderator

                          Will your county sheriff stand up for you?

                          What if he has been given a believable story that your a (insert horrendous crime here)?

                          It might not be so clearcut!

                        • #96609
                          D Close
                          Moderator

                            Here is what I am doing right now: Building Tribe. The construction of resilient communities of barbarians who are self reliant and dangerous seems to be the most sustainable strategy for a variety of scenarios.
                            “We don’t need a Revolution. We need revolution. We need to stop playing the game by the rules set by the opposition…If you will focus your energies, talents and efforts on your own tribe of kith and kin, you can assure the safety of your tribe, building the foundations of the values you cherish.” -John Mosby, Forging the Hero.

                          • #96610
                            Max
                            Keymaster

                              D Close,
                              Exactly, this is what I was going to say. This is why it is important to have a group of people you can really trust. We should be forming these types of groups now and not on Facebook or out for the world to see. These people you trust could be called to testify on your behalf in court or if it comes down to it, help you go into hiding. There has been a lot of talk about this recently on Radio Free Redoubt and on the TOWR website. This is why people that have experience with these sort of things like John Mosby have been saying Local, local, local for years.

                            • #96611
                              Max
                              Keymaster

                                Note: This is not Max’s response.

                                And I will admit also, that Im probably not doing the best job of getting together with like minded folks as I should. Its hard sometimes though to find people who get it.

                              • #96612
                                Max
                                Keymaster

                                  Note: This is not Max’s response.

                                  One more thing, I see this with some local folks here, that I think a lot of folks on our side underestimate what the enemy is capable of. That they dont think that people in this country would resort to framing folks or extortion, blackmail, etc. Until we stop underestimating the enemy and really see who we are dealing with, we are at a disadvantage. It really needs to be treated like a real resistance movement instead of a bunch of folks getting together for shooting. Training with placing caches, communications, etc. All aspects matter in this fight. This would greatly help in dealing with the above scenario.

                                • #96613
                                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                  Moderator

                                    One more thing, I see this with some local folks here, that I think a lot of folks on our side underestimate what the enemy is capable of.

                                    Agreed.

                                    That they dont think that people in this country would resort to framing folks or extortion, blackmail, etc.

                                    That happens now.

                                    We need to think and prepare for outside the box “Events” in addition to more traditional possibilities.

                                    How many people would have gone to help in the Nevada Bundy Ranch event if he would have been labeled a child rapist vice having delinquent cattle grazing fees on public domain lands?

                                  • #96614
                                    Max
                                    Keymaster

                                      Note: This is not Max’s response.

                                      GWNS,
                                      I sometimes think about such scenarios as one you put forth in your last paragraph above. Heres another one:
                                      You remove your children from public school because you dont want your children indoctrinated with this transgender or other agendas that are being forced to be taught in the school system. A few years down the road, homeschooling is outlawed. So then they start labeling homeschool parents as abusers, rapists, etc. We’ve seen it before. They come to take your kids and you to jail without warning because they have told local peace officers you are abusing your kids. What would we do?
                                      The only solution I think we would be to have a support network in place such as you described where folks would be there to help defend or at least help you and/or your family go into hiding.
                                      I will say also I am not a leader, have no desire to be one. I do not have any military service or experience in dealing with these types of scenarios. Im just a plain old civilian and dont have all or maybe not even any answers. So I may be completely off base.
                                      Thanks for bringing these types of things up, it helps me think. :good:

                                    • #96615
                                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                      Moderator

                                        …or experience in dealing with these types of scenarios.

                                        We are all pretty much in the same boat, but the more we “wargame” it maybe it’ll be enough to give us a little early warning.

                                        Better to take a short notice camping trip, than wait too long.

                                      • #96616
                                        Max
                                        Keymaster

                                          GWNS,
                                          100% agree. Keep ’em coming! :good:

                                        • #96617
                                          Anonymous
                                          Inactive

                                            …they don’t even need to plant drugs or kiddie porn on you anymore.

                                            I think you are missing the point, it’s not about charging people with any crime. It’s about disinformation to delay possible push back.

                                            Now if they obscure things with picking up people under the guise of various horrendous crimes it buys them time to get more accomplished before the “Resistance Rises.”

                                            They are also more creative than just kiddie porn and drugs. Have a Hispanic name, maybe you were involved in illegal aliens or human trafficking. Again not to actually charge you with anything, just buying time.

                                            Of course, the blackmailing would be a delay tactic to forestall any large-scale revolt. I was just using kiddie porn as the example because that’s what you referenced. If it was a Mexican guy they might say he’s harboring illegals, a black guy they’d say prostitution or drug dealing instead, play into stereotypes and it helps. The charge itself doesn’t matter, even if it doesn’t stick, it’s just necessary to make you question whether the person “had it coming” or not and raise FUDD. (“Trayvon Martin grew pot and made gangster hand signs, he was just a street punk anyway”, maybe not the greatest example but you get the gist.) Once things get popping then it doesn’t matter as much because it’s easier for an organized resistance movement to counter the disinformation or disavow it as propaganda entirely. But if you can nip the leadership in the bud…

                                            I think we’re on the same page there, sorry if I didn’t express those ideas clearly.

                                            They don’t have the numbers to conduct a nationwide sweep, but if it began as a regional conflict then it could be easier to contain the revolt before it spread. All of America wouldn’t be at arms at once, especially if it’s over a localized issue like Malheur was, no matter how many guns they have in Texas it isn’t going to help if the fight’s in Colorado. There would have to be a collective boiling of the pot nationwide to convince a large enough swathe of the population that it was time to push back. Large-scale national-level protests, followed by violent counter-action by the government, only then would there be the support for force of arms, otherwise it’s just insurrection.

                                          • #96618
                                            HiDesertRat
                                            Participant

                                              It has been said here before that the only viable alternative is to work from the inside out, i.e., form your plans individually, and then
                                              move out to your immediate environment locally and so on. We do not know when the sky will fall, but we do know that it will. Better a year early than a day late in preparation. There is no longer an IF, just a when. A mere journey over the ‘news of day’ on the alternative media should galvanize those that are still thinking. It is what a prudent individual would do in the face of what is to come. Unfortunately mathematics predicts failure despite proclamations from the collective. What we now have is unsustainable in its’ current form. Plain and simple. Just move forward with your plans. To steal a phrase, “improvise, overcome, adapt”. I would add that you cherish who and what you have as well. Don’t make it complicated, just do it and live as best you can.

                                              As an aside, the idea of boiling pots sounds intriguing. I enjoy cooking.

                                            • #143614
                                              Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                              Moderator

                                                So I started this back in 2016 with the premise “When the “Event” doesn’t look like the SHTF?”

                                                How about “When the Event looks like the SHTF, but not for the obvious reason?”

                                                Could a Nation State/s; or elements within said State, manipulate conditions, reactions, or the environment to conduct a hidden agenda?I

                                                Can reactions be more perilous than the cause?

                                                What Event/s could cause people to willing submit to actions they would never ordinarily accept?

                                                Fear is a powerful tool of manipulation!

                                                Even giving current events, do not read too much into this, as I present this much more as exercise in critical thinking than a explanation or theory.

                                              • #143616
                                                gatlinggun
                                                Participant
                                                • #143650
                                                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                  Moderator

                                                    Speaking of wargaming various scenarios…….

                                                    Sounds like JC Dodge has been watching season 1 of Fear the Walking Dead. ;-)

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