Turkey Set To Invade Syria?

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Home Forums Operational and Strategic Levels Turkey Set To Invade Syria?

  • This topic has 7 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 4 months ago by RRS. This post has been viewed 81 times
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    • #96319
      D Close
      Moderator

        Right now the Turks are shelling the Kurds, that we armed, who are fighting ISIS, who are supplied by Saudi and UAE, who are sending planes to Incirlik, a NATO base, to help save Sunni forces in Aleppo who are about to be cut off by Russia and Hezbollah. So, how do we win this again?

        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-13/turkey-says-massive-escalation-syria-imminent-saudis-set-launch-airstrikes

      • #96320
        RRS
        Participant

          If the American empire had a grand strategy the best I can come up with is that the elite would want to ensnare the Russians in the ME and bleed them.

          But I really doubt this batch of clowns has or even knows what grand strategy is. The left excels at effeminate office politics and the right is stuck in the year 1945 and both are out of ideas and losing legitimacy fast.

          I also think as an outside chance what the Russians would like is for the ISIS killer clown show to be shoved back within Saudi Arabia to take their oil off the market.

        • #96321
          HiDesertRat
          Participant

            I propose another scenario. Russia has made it clear that intervention in Syria by Saudi Arabia, and any of their coalition, and Turkey, member of NATO or not, cross the line in the sands, Russia will respond. And I believe it will not be the same line in the sand obumer spoke of in the past, and then hopscotched away. The degradation of these forces will occur quite quickly, and as an afterthought, perhaps for an encore, the Russians level the oil production facilities in the kingdom of Saud. This would create two positive points for them. One, price of oil would skyrocket, and as Russia is one of the largest exporters of petroleum products, their economy would benefit. Second, since all Saudi oil is priced in USD ( according to arrangements made more than half a century ago), would deal a serious blow to the USD hegemony as world currency, it would continue downwards. Our currency, any currency, is based on faith more than anything. Lately, our government has been replacing the faith in our currency with force of arms. Do as we say or else. Witness Libya/Kadhafi, Iraq/Saddam Hussein, any who dare question dollar supremacy. The former wished to initiate the use of the golden dinar to replace paper money in the middle east, the latter wanted to price Iraqi oil in Euros. TPTB did not care for those thoughts, and bombs rained from heaven.Just a thought.

          • #96322
            Anonymous
            Inactive

              The only thing preventing the Turks from outright invading northern Syria right now is that the people they wanna bulldoze over and hand over to the Islamists are being backed by the US. God forbid if Western special operations (or Western foreign volunteers) with the YPG got killed by our good friend and ally Erdogan. *Sarcasm*

              If the Turks do eventually invade northern Syria, it’ll be through the gap between Rojava’s (Syrian Kurdistan’s) Jazira and Kobane cantons – those areas are more Turkmen and Arab, and have a lot of Islamist militias that have been receiving Turkish support. (Now that the Americans have backed the YPG against IS, the Turks can’t explicitly use IS as a proxy against the Kurds anymore, so it’s down to groups like Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra instead. The latter, if you’re wondering is the official al-Qaeda affiliate of Syria.) The Kurds have been trying to link all three cantons together, so the Turks are having a hissy fit because it’ll make Rojava a much more viable statelet. From reading up on this, just because the Saudis and UAE want access to Incirlik doesn’t mean they’ll invade between the Jazira-Kobane corridor, they might also want to go through the Jordanian-Syrian border where groups like the Southern Front are still operating. Not sure if the Saudis want a war against the Kurds on their hands, they’re having trouble fighting other Arabs with the Houthis, Allah help them against battle-hardened Kurds, they can actually fight lol.

              If Turkey does send ground forces after the Syrian Kurds, expect the Americans to lose credibility with them and for the Syrian Kurds to slide into the Russians’ court, they’ve made gestures in that direction to have a backup plan (though they’ve publicly denied cooperation with Russia and say their allies of America), and if the Americans can’t protect them against the Turks then they’re not all that useful after all, right? And I’m sure the Kurds in Iraq will be happy to see their compatriots in Syria getting slaughtered (especially among the PUK), so they’ll have to consider whether to be more open towards Iran and Russia too.

              It would be a real shame to see Rojava get crushed by a bunch of Islamists, the PYD practices a left-wing libertarian communalism but they’ve been toying with a lot of really cool ideas on direct democracy and small government – but of course we’re beholden to a Turkish president who wants to be an Islamist Putin.

            • #96323
              RRS
              Participant

                An update, Turks have shelled some Syrian government outposts. I got this off the SNAFU blog, he covers areas like this if in a conventional American Empire way. It is where I found the Houthi raid video.

                Perhaps a devious Russian plan to suck in Turks, fracture NATO, unleash the Islamisist wave 2.0 upon both Europe and the Gulf despotisms. This discredits the American Empire clown show of free trade and multiculturalism or else we bomb the eff out of you politics, and Putin remarkably will almost honestly say he offers freedom from the American craziness.

              • #96324
                D Close
                Moderator

                  Some really good points and info, thanks! There seems to be a real danger of this spinning out of control. The Saudi-Iran confict by proxy war will morph to direct contact. I wouldn’t want to be near the place, especially navigating a tanker through the gulf. Potential for WMD use as well as NATO-Russia spillover. Turkey is pretty agressive when their interests are threatened. Let’s watch this one.

                • #96325
                  DiznNC
                  Participant

                    H-DR makes some rather salient points about real-politiks. Despite the rhetoric from any country, it’s own self-interest is driving it’s policies. Much like Christianity, I think the rest of the world has grown tired of our efforts to export Jeffersonian democracy. Yes, they are ungrateful fucks, so what’s the point anymore. Either align with us, for your own interests, or not. Let’s drop the “de oppressor liber” ruse for all the rube’s back home.

                  • #96326
                    RRS
                    Participant

                      Zerohedge the home of hype and conspiracy and often right has an article up about the State department’s long term strategy of ensnaring Russia in the middle east.

                      Which means Russia knew this before they went into Syria, thanks to Hillary and probably a thousand other of “our best and brightest” bad security habits.

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