Recent Ebola Outbreak/Epidemic

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    • #82411
      Corvette
      Participant

        First Lets get some references right so we can discuss this intelligently:

        Outbreak: Lots more cases than normal
        Epidemic: geographically widespread outbreak
        Pandemic: very widely spread outbreak such as affecting a large part of the world.

        A short synopsis on what Ebola is:
        – Viral, specifically a Filovirus (very untypical form looks like a twine or twig , most viruses are more compact)
        – Hemorrhagic fever causing (lots of internal and some external bleeding due to tissue and blood vessel degradation
        – Contrary to Wikipedia not really all that infectious, certainly alot less than the flu or cold, extreme precautions are taken are due to lack of cure and lethality.
        – Lethality rates up to 90% (this strain a lot less, more later)
        – Incubation period 2-21 (!) days.

        The Virus is called Ebola Virus (though many add a specifier for the strain) the disease state is called EVD, which means Ebola Virus Disease.

        Original symptoms: Many are similar to Influenza and many other lesser diseases, : sore throat, fever, headaches, muscle pains.

        Also later diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, which then progresses to the Hallmarks of the Hemorrhagic fevers , bleeding from eyes, ears, anus etc etc

        But the very early stages it is not as obvious as to what it is, (unless you use advanced detection such as PCR to look for Virus titer in the bloodstream)

        What happens normally in Ebola Outbreaks?

        a) some people get sick and die in one village
        b) same in a neighboring village
        c) maybe a couple of medics
        – Virus fizzles out as it kills quickly and everyone stays away from the obviously infected who are bleeding out of all orifices as they lie dying
        – All infected humans are dead. no more transmisison
        – Outbreak over

        What happened here?

        we have a) and b) and c) but no fizzling.
        the disease just keeps going and going.

        Why whats different?
        back in March I was in a discussion group with some Scientists and MD’s and it was already obvious to me that this outbreak was different.

        Why? because it wasn’t stopping and was spreading over 3 countries.

        As I asked the folks in the discussion group what they thought was making the difference this time? as the outbreak was surely distinct, both geographically and in its spread?
        I was told,, no F. its the same as usual, bats are the reservoir, then primates got sick, then humans from primates yada yada blah blah, blah

        But something WAS different.
        It was obvious 1st we very rarely had outbreaks in this part of Africa and when we did they were short and small. the only outbreak that ever came close was in the heart of Ebola country Central Africa not west.

        Fast Forward 3 months,
        the Outbreak is still going strong and many are calling it an Epidemic.

        And we find out something interetsing:

        – This strain IS different genetically from other Ebola strains
        – It is less lethal (lethality 50-65%)
        – The onset of hemorrhagic symptoms occurs much later in the disease progression

        Those of you that have enjoyed the Seminars on the morning of Day 2 of CRCD will understand now why this strain has not stopped:

        – Less lethality often means slower onset of symptoms so individuals can be infectious , even if only a little, while free or largely free of symptoms.
        – Slow onset not just of symptoms in general but of symptoms specific to EVD will create windows in which people will not yet engage in social distancing with infected people with predictable results.

        When human being go “Yuck he looks like a real sick dude, I;m gonna stay away” this disgust reaction is how nature creates social distancing mechanisms to protect people.

        When the virus shows the nasty symptoms late than this protectio n mechanism is devalued.

        I am convinced this is why this particular outbreak is ongoing.

        Witness the Liberia official Sawyer (family resident in Minnesota), he was well enough to board a plane to Lagos Nigeria, to hold on to tickets and take a seat while being in late stage of EVD.

        This is evidenced by the fact that he collapsped shortly after arrival.
        yet when getting his ticket and boarding he did not display the typical Ebola symptoms or NO ONE would have let him on the plane!

        This is why this is spreading.
        Its not MORE lethal than “normal” Ebola it simply is gentler in its symptoms and actually less lethal in speed of death and in % lethality.

        This is why it hasnt fizzled.
        As some of you will recall I always harp on it that LESS lethal diseases can easier become an epidemic than more lethal ones right?

        What does this mean for us?
        Its easier for someone to travel to the US and not display symptoms and get sick here and spread it here.

        However at this time I think it unlikely this strain of Ebola will turn into a pandemic or become a significant problem here, since Ebola is not very transmissible (need to exchange bodily fluids, though 1 airborne transmission from pigs to monkeys has been shown to occur the the lab!)

        I covered what I felt was useful needed but I encourage any and all questions so go ahead and ask.

      • #82412
        Joe (G.W.N.S.)
        Moderator

          And we find out something interesting:

          – This strain IS different genetically from other Ebola strains
          – It is less lethal (lethality 50-65%)
          – The onset of hemorrhagic symptoms occurs much later in the disease progression

          How many strains of Ebola are their currently?

          How long does it typically take for a new strain to be sequenced?

          Any information on mutation rates with ebola?

          since Ebola is not very transmissible (need to exchange bodily fluids, though 1 airborne transmission from pigs to monkeys has been shown to occur the the lab!)

          What preventative sanitation measures; if any, have proved effective in dealing with infected body fluids?

          Is Ebola Reston still being debated as a possible airborne version?

        • #82413
          Max
          Keymaster

            Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

            Exchange of body fluid, cough and sneeze? If airborne, would a N95 face mask stop this virus. thanks.

          • #82414
            Corvette
            Participant

              GWNS:

              – there are 5 major strains currently . The Outbreak right now is a sub strain of ZEBOV which means Zaire Ebola Virus (also just known as EBOV)

              – it depends to which standard you make that determination. To the level of what we in the military would call “actionable intelligence” you can make inferences based on symptoms, which is what I did in March. To determine a new strain or sub strain to a standard that satisifes the medical community not just the intelligence commmunity takes many many weeks

              – Mutation rates are not as fast as with many other viruses. Key sequences appear to be well conserved.

              – As for body fluids. you dont want to deal with them at all. Since there is no cure or vaccine and the disease is so lethal. So I would not just rely on sanitaion but this is one of the few instances where I recommend folks suit up.
              HOWEVER having said that all viruses are highly susceptible to bleach, or even prolonged exposure to air for that matter. Viruses outside the host stay infectious only for a limited time… usually as long as the fluid they are in can protect them form Oxygen in the air.
              In a Science Fiction prepper scenario where you dont have access to proper protective gear (aka PPE) then standard sanitation techniques work.. you just have to do them very well and in a very conscientious manner at all times.

              Not that nothing is perfect and doctors who know all these things at times do get infected… So the risk may be exceedingly small for a single interaction with an infected person…(“Where is your Ammo stash! Talk!”) but interacting again and again and again while giving care, raises the risk to higher levels even if good procedures are used.

              – ZEBOV , which is distinct from REBOV (Reston) has been shown to exhibit some airborne transmission: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2012/11/news-scan-airborne-ebola-marburg-fmd-vaccine-funds-fungal-meningitis-update

            • #82415
              Corvette
              Participant

                Exchange of body fluid, cough and sneeze? If airborne, would a N95 face mask stop this virus. thanks.

                Yes (fluid), yes (kinda yes), yes (kinda yes) and no (N95 guarantee to stop?).

                Though making patients wear masks minimizes risk from their cough and sneeze.
                (However it should be noted that coughing and sneezing are not among classic symptoms of Ebola though I do not doubt that on occasion they do occur)
                N95 is better than nothing and would defend against droplets and could make the difference BUT I would not recommend it after all your eyes are still exposed and they can be an entry point for infection.

                The primary way for Ebola to become airborne would not be like the flu or cold via constant coughing /sneezing but by aerosolizing droplets of bodily fluid. Like an accident with a ultracentrifuge or even with a fast spinning fan.

                airborne transmission is a very rare thing even though the link above will show it has happened.

              • #82416
                Corvette
                Participant

                  Keep the questions coming folks.
                  This is the best format IMO since I don’t always know what PPL are interested in. :bye:

                • #82417
                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                  Moderator

                    Thanks for the prompt response.

                    Obviously I consider highly unlikely; at this point, to have to deal with Ebola. Since we are discussing it for both knowledge and preparedness.

                    Is cremation of deceased and incineration of remnants still the most appropriate method of dealing with deceased victims?

                    Given the fear factor of something like Ebola. And the typical scared Public response to threats, both justified and unjustified.

                    What items, gear, and medical supplies do you think might become somewhat scarce for the civilian consumer in the unlikely event of Ebola coming to the America?

                    Edited to add:
                    The reason I ask is not to get a jump-start on my “Ebola preparedness kit,” but as preppers many of us have lists of future purchases. These purchases can be thwarted by bad timing due to panic buying.

                  • #82418
                    Chris
                    Moderator

                      How controlled is this outbreak freddy? with our borders being what they are and the influx of people….this is a bio terror weapon waiting to happen. Especially if someone can mask their symptoms…not trying to get all Tom Clancy foil hat here….but just curious

                    • #82419
                      Corvette
                      Participant

                        Thanks for the prompt response.

                        Obviously I consider highly unlikely; at this point, to have to deal with Ebola. Since we are discussing it for both knowledge and preparedness.

                        1) Is cremation of deceased and incineration of remnants still the most appropriate method of dealing with deceased victims?

                        2) Given the fear factor of something like Ebola. And the typical scared Public response to threats, both justified and unjustified.

                        3) What items, gear, and medical supplies do you think might become somewhat scarce for the civilian consumer in the unlikely event of Ebola coming to the America?

                        Edited to add:
                        The reason I ask is not to get a jump-start on my “Ebola preparedness kit,” but as preppers many of us have lists of future purchases. These purchases can be thwarted by bad timing due to panic buying.

                        1) Works well. Nothing wrong with burial either depending on the numbers involved. Whichever way you can handle in your situation with the least exposure to the bodies. The virus will not leach into ground water and infect people from there .. its very vulnerable and deactivates quickly on its own outside of host.

                        2) The fear factor is the big unknown.. Even a minor outbreak in the US may shut some cities down IMO just because of people intense fear. This may lead to more disruption and therefore deaths than from the disease itself.

                        3) whatever is normal use. gloves eye pro and N 95 masks are standard stuff. Tyvek suits will be in short supply in a major outbreak. Dont worry about a bleach shortage soap and water kills the virus very well too. If you are not treating people and you are just out and about even the presence of dieing victims should give you little threat of being infected if you dont linger in thier vicinity.

                        If you are forced to linger for any reason, gloves, eye pro and a soapy shower as quickly as you can (and wash clothes of course) should be sufficient precaution.

                      • #82420
                        Corvette
                        Participant

                          How controlled is this outbreak f.? with our borders being what they are and the influx of people….this is a bio terror weapon waiting to happen. Especially if someone can mask their symptoms…not trying to get all Tom Clancy foil hat here….but just curious

                          Not very controlled yet.
                          Its entirely possible infected folks may get in.

                          Ebola is actually a lot easier to grow in a lab than most other viruses, certain easier-to-manage and more affordable cell cultures support it.

                          So a Bio weapon threat is there. Though keep in mind Bio weapons are very difficult to manage and attempts in this directions have invariably fizzled in the past.

                          Also I do not think Ebola is infectious enough to make an effective bioweapon, however this particular strain with its extended window of not showing symptoms has taken a small step in the direction of being slightly more of a threat in that regards.

                        • #82421
                          RRS
                          Participant

                            Thank you very much for your expertise. I had thought about a reverse small pox situation where an African traveler brought it back to the States and it spread thru out the caucasion population from lack of natural defenses, but then I read it has a fairly low transmission compared to other diseases.

                          • #82422
                            Corvette
                            Participant

                              Thank you very much for your expertise. I had thought about a reverse small pox situation where an African traveler brought it back to the States and it spread thru out the caucasion population from lack of natural defenses, but then I read it has a fairly low transmission compared to other diseases.

                              And there is no immunity to any of the various Ebola strains among local populations either

                            • #82423
                              Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                              Moderator

                                And there is no immunity to any of the various Ebola strains among local populations either

                                So have there been any studies of Ebola Survivors relating to their resistance to any of the strains?

                                Not thinking about cures or immunizations, but was thinking more along the lines of Ebola survivors being the new Ebola medics.

                              • #82424
                                Corvette
                                Participant

                                  And there is no immunity to any of the various Ebola strains among local populations either

                                  So have there been any studies of Ebola Survivors relating to their resistance to any of the strains?

                                  Not thinking about cures or immunizations, but was thinking more along the lines of Ebola survivors being the new Ebola medics.

                                  Yes.

                                  Ebola survivors are generally immune against the strain they were infected with.

                                  Experimental treatments involve blood from survivors given to a victim.
                                  Of course Blood has a short shelf life so this would only be available if you are in the middle of a current outbreak that is also mature enough to have generated fully recovered survivors.

                                • #82425
                                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                  Moderator

                                    :-)

                                    Seriously, thanks for the information.

                                  • #82426
                                    Corvette
                                    Participant

                                      haHa yes.. edited :D

                                    • #82427
                                      Hambone
                                      Participant

                                        According to an article on Drudge yesterday, the two sick Americans are being brought here to the US. Is it possible this could be by design or just common practice. I don’t see how any more can be done here than what is taking place in Africa. Looking at this from an alternate view, one could say this is being done purposely, with, the hopes of infecting Americans to create fear and panic. Your thoughts.

                                      • #82428
                                        Corvette
                                        Participant

                                          Hambone,

                                          bringing the 2 back is mostly for comfort IMO.

                                          One of them, the older female, got a full unit of blood from a survivor there so that improve her chances.

                                          The younger male was supposed to get it but he deferred in her favor.
                                          Not sure what more they can do here than offer a unit of survivor blood, which I dont know if they have or not.
                                          Such blood is best gotten locally.

                                          The PTB have no interest in creating fear and panic here quite the opposite.
                                          Its easier to rule in the absence of fear/panic IMHO.

                                          Incidentally the fact that they are both still alive (I believe its been several days of symptoms now) shows this strain is a bit less vigorous in its lethality than most Ebola.
                                          (Of course as we discussed this makes it more dangerous)

                                        • #82429
                                          JC
                                          Participant

                                            Excellent thread. Thanks very much!

                                          • #82430
                                            D Close
                                            Moderator

                                              F, can the virus penetrate unbroken skin?

                                            • #82431
                                              Corvette
                                              Participant

                                                No, human skin is a great barrier against pathogens.

                                                But if its on your hand and you dont wear goggles and face mask and you touch your face…it can get in via any mucous membrane, eye, nose, mouth or a break in the skin.

                                              • #82432
                                                Max
                                                Keymaster

                                                  Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                  As a 26 year hospital RN, half of that time in ICU and Trauma I have followed the reports of the epidemic in Africa daily. Viral infections have alot to do with viral load. How much virus got into your body before it overwhelms your own immune response.
                                                  Lower viral loads can lead to lighter infections. The tribal practice in Eastern Africa of family touching the dead has helped to spread this disease farther. The longer incubation time has allowed it to make the jump into population centers.
                                                  Ebola used to be self limiting by killing it’s assumed hosts (humans) so quickly that it burned out in weeks.
                                                  Here in the US it is unlikely to become an uncontrolled explosion of disease because we have better protective gear for the average healthcare worked and infection control practices that exceed what is done in the bush hospitals in Africa.
                                                  Tribal superstitions such as blocking the roads and attacking infection control teams that are occurring there will not happen here.
                                                  Personally I am more concerned with drug resistant TB coming from Central American illegals than I am Ebola. Yes it is only one plane flight away and had he not become symptomatic Sawyer was planning on taking a flight here to see his daughter. But it would be contained quickly.
                                                  One concern that I do have, there have been no studies done that I am aware of regarding if the disease can be vector transmitted. (Ticks/mosquitoes)
                                                  When foreign trained healthcare workers started getting the disease in spite of their protective actions I thought that this might explain it. Especially if their initial viral load was small.
                                                  A mosquito is a flying hypodermic syringe. And they have already been proven to transmit virus’. This might cause milder versions of the disease due to less exposure.
                                                  One last thing, your eyes must be protected from droplets with goggles. Splash exposure is more likely to enter the body via the eyes than the nose/mouth.
                                                  Our “Ebola gear” is plastic fluid resistant gown, common face mask, goggles, shoe covers and heavy gloves like what we use for chemo. Common hospital gloves may not stop virus’.

                                                • #82433
                                                  M1-Guy
                                                  Participant

                                                    F

                                                    Reading the most recent Ebola stuff this morning and seems like the urgency/rhetoric is increasing from WHO, reports on Zero Hedge and the AP. What is your read on this since?

                                                    Thanks.

                                                  • #82434
                                                    Max
                                                    Keymaster

                                                      Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                      It is certainly a pandemic in Africa. There is good reason for concern if not panic there. I read the reports and the slant toward sensationalism differs with who is saying it. The exact same information, however one is stating how serious things are while the other is practically screaming that we are all gonna die.
                                                      Sounds like an agenda to me. I like ZH but they are blowing it out of proportion. WHO gets their funding from the public. And yet their reports are the most scientific with less fanfare even though a good outbreak of disease could increase their budget.
                                                      AP is a propaganda outlet. Too many in our gubbiment have stated “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” An outbreak could be useful for things like Martial Law, suspension of elections and the forced volunteering of people like me. They already are trying to force us to get flu shots when there is no evidence that they work and God alone knows what is in them.
                                                      While we would take the matter seriously, none of us in healthcare are panicking about Ebola. We have been dealing with some pretty serious shit for years now. You are much more at risk for contracting a deadly E-Coli infection from a Mcgarbage burger or some salad from California that was picked by an illegal who didn’t wash his hands after crapping in the field.

                                                    • #82435
                                                      Max
                                                      Keymaster

                                                        Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                        Hmmmm, maybe I was a little harsh on AP. Guess it depends on which reporter is writing the article. I just read a couple more. Doesn’t change my opinion about our own government though.
                                                        BTW if the doctor survives his infection I will be even more concerned about him catching it froma mosquito.

                                                      • #82436
                                                        Max
                                                        Keymaster

                                                          FYI: F is away at class till Wednesday night, when he will answer all questions.

                                                        • #82437
                                                          Wattage
                                                          Participant

                                                            WOW. F! Check this out. Looks like there is a secret antidote! http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/04/health/experimental-ebola-serum/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

                                                          • #82438
                                                            Max
                                                            Keymaster

                                                              Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                              New York patient being tested.

                                                              http://7online.com/health/mount-sinai-patient-tested-for-ebola-virus/239663/

                                                            • #82439
                                                              Corvette
                                                              Participant

                                                                F

                                                                Reading the most recent Ebola stuff this morning and seems like the urgency/rhetoric is increasing from WHO, reports on Zero Hedge and the AP. What is your read on this since?

                                                                Thanks.

                                                                The urgency is due to the combination of factors such as the gruesome nature of the disease and it’s lethality rates.

                                                                This is what drives coverage and urgency not a realistic threat.
                                                                We would need a significant mutation that greatly improves transmission rates for it to develop into a serious threat.

                                                              • #82440
                                                                Corvette
                                                                Participant

                                                                  1) It is certainly a pandemic in Africa.

                                                                  2) WHO gets their funding from the public. And yet their reports are the most scientific with less fanfare even though a good outbreak of disease could increase their budget.

                                                                  3)
                                                                  AP is a propaganda outlet. Too many in our gubbiment have stated “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” An outbreak could be useful for things like Martial Law, suspension of elections and the forced volunteering of people like me.

                                                                  4) They already are trying to force us to get flu shots when there is no evidence that they work and God alone knows what is in them.

                                                                  5) While we would take the matter seriously, none of us in healthcare are panicking about Ebola. We have been dealing with some pretty serious shit for years now. You are much more at risk for contracting a deadly E-Coli infection from a Mcgarbage burger or some salad from California that was picked by an illegal who didn’t wash his hands after crapping in the field.

                                                                  1) respectfully disagree/. We would need to see MUCH greater numbers of infected to call it a pandemic.

                                                                  2) true

                                                                  3) Agreed

                                                                  4) Respectfully disagree…They seem to work quite well and are a fantastic tool.

                                                                  5) Well said.

                                                                • #82441
                                                                  Corvette
                                                                  Participant

                                                                    WOW. F! Check this out. Looks like there is a secret antidote! http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/04/health/experimental-ebola-serum/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

                                                                    Interesting development. :good:

                                                                    But we often see promising new medications that are then never heard form again.
                                                                    Its certainly good news but I will withhold judgment until we see what the affordability and effectiveness in more than 1 or 2 cases is.:)

                                                                  • #82442
                                                                    Max
                                                                    Keymaster

                                                                      Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                      I stand corrected on #1. You are right, statistically it is not to the level of a pandemic. It also lacks the transmission capability for that designation.
                                                                      On #4 You and I will have to respectfully disagree with each other. Maybe the world will stay together long enough for me to buy you a beer some day and we could talk about it.
                                                                      Have you heard of any studies done on vector transmission?

                                                                    • #82443
                                                                      Corvette
                                                                      Participant

                                                                        Semper,

                                                                        where do you live?
                                                                        We do have an active group in North VA that meets for Beer.

                                                                        There are various studies out.
                                                                        Most in the original literature that requires subscriptions.

                                                                        Off the top of my head the “Journal of Molecular Biology” should have some things for you to sink your teeth into. :)

                                                                        Your place of work may carry a subscription.
                                                                        Otherwise major university libraries do.

                                                                      • #82444
                                                                        Max
                                                                        Keymaster

                                                                          Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                          I live in central Florida on the coast North of Tampa. Want to see what happens over the next few months leading up to the election before I am willing to go very far from my home base.
                                                                          There has been alot of helicopter activity from Macdill going on these last several weeks and it sometimes is a precursor of an incident. Last time I saw this much was right before Boston.
                                                                          I will take a stroll to the medical library in my hospital and have a look at the Journal. Thanks. Appreciate the suggestion.
                                                                          Stay safe up there in Appalachia. Warmest regards -SemperFido

                                                                        • #82445
                                                                          Max
                                                                          Keymaster

                                                                            Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                            I’m not all that worried about Ebola at this time but I did run across some interesting information today. I see the CDC is recommending airborne precautions in regards to possibly infected airline passengers.

                                                                          • #82446
                                                                            Max
                                                                            Keymaster

                                                                              Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                              Hmmm, didn’t get it linked the first time.

                                                                              http://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/air/managing-sick-travelers/ebola-guidance-airlines.html

                                                                            • #82447
                                                                              Corvette
                                                                              Participant

                                                                                Inside the shrieking aluminum tube you always have a special environment.
                                                                                Air gets re circulated to a great extent and so even diseases that dont usually employ airborne transmission can get a limited degree of it.

                                                                                Great potential for problems here in aircraft so extra pre cautions are called for.

                                                                                One precaution to take in aircraft is to keep ones eyes closed (mucous membrane can be infection entry) and only breather thru your nose (nose has some filtration)

                                                                              • #82448
                                                                                Max
                                                                                Keymaster

                                                                                  Isn’t this Ebola outbreak far worse then we predicted here?

                                                                                  Did we underestimate it or is the information out there a result of panic and fear mongering?

                                                                                  Let’s strive to be as objective as possible, without either fear-mongering or deliberately underestimating the threat. Strike a good balance.

                                                                                  I was reading THIS at WRSA and it made me wonder. Comment from the CBRN experts?

                                                                                  The MVT SHIELD, now available to order, is unfortunately not rated to protect you from Ebola, or Bigfoot for that matter.

                                                                                • #82449
                                                                                  Corvette
                                                                                  Participant

                                                                                    Max,

                                                                                    It IS far worse than was predicted in the beginning of the outbreak by the mainstream. but no worse than we predicted in this thread.

                                                                                    But this ongoing infection is exactly what was expected with the behavior of this particular strain as explained in my very first post.

                                                                                    So I guess you might say that is is far worse than regular Ebola in its ability to spread (for the reasons listed in this thread and the Sunday morning seminars at CRCD)

                                                                                    And this is what I briefed your students on in the seminars… months before it made it into the mainstream press… but it is clearly not infectious enough that it will become a significant health threat in a 1st world country w/o a major mutation.
                                                                                    (And arent we always just one good mutation away from a pandemic?)

                                                                                    Aagin, nothing that’s being picked up in the mainstream press and the not so mainstream blogosphere is anything that wasnt 100% predictable once you realized this strain is different (as explained in this thread).

                                                                                    The main difference is people are now starting to pay attention to it.
                                                                                    Last I checked we were still at under 1000 recorded deaths which is a fraction of a good flu season.

                                                                                    Now the PERCEPTION of a significant health threat to this is a different story.
                                                                                    The more the media picks it up as a story the more people will be worried panicked even.

                                                                                    A general feeling of worry or even panic in the population is good politically for those of us who are dissidents, because it weakens the grip of the status quo ….

                                                                                    And thats a good thing.

                                                                                    In March I had arguments with fellow scientists where I insisted this is much worse than normal and was accused of “speculation”.

                                                                                    Now that the cat is out of the bag, everyone wants to panic.

                                                                                    But I am not on the fear mongering train either in that’s “this huge public health threat now to the United States” because its not. (though I welcome the political Ammo it may give to dissidents)

                                                                                    In the end like you said, it’s all about striking a good balance.

                                                                                  • #82450
                                                                                    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                    Moderator

                                                                                      Well F continues to have the technical aspects covered. :yes:

                                                                                      A general feeling of worry or even panic in the population is good politically for those of us who are dissidents, because it weakens the grip of the status quo ….

                                                                                      And thats a good thing.

                                                                                      The Politics of this is much more difficult to keep up with.

                                                                                      This outbreak is good for business when it comes to the CDC, WHO, and other such organizations to include NGO Aid groups.

                                                                                      Why?

                                                                                      Money, whether in the form of increased appropriations or increased donations.

                                                                                      An additional wildcard is the Politics of Africa. There are many areas within the affected nations that their political leadership would be happy if Ebola killed these members of opposing tribes (admittedly a general statement, but would take days to brief in-depth, those that have spent time in Africa will understand).

                                                                                      The fear factor is a two edged sword, fear makes populations accept the normally unacceptable, however panic can make that population unpredictable.

                                                                                      Uncovered Government lies can certainly be used by “dissidents” to gain credibility and support.

                                                                                      Of note; in the WRSA links Max provided, the statement about PPE not being worn properly. It’s a human nature thing, you spend time in that gear for hours on end in the heat and sweating, it makes for poor judgement even with the best training (something probably lacking in this case). In many ways generators and Air-conditioners would probably help more than anything else in treatment areas.

                                                                                      Many of the so-called experts the media interviews and quotes are not experts and/or have their own agendas.

                                                                                      The possibility of it becoming airborne or even speculation that it is already airborne (in a limited way) really raises the bar on fear mongering!

                                                                                      At this point careful monitoring of the situation is all we can do, preparations are really limited to what should already be part of your preps.

                                                                                      Please consider this as great place to continue to bring in information that is relevant, this OSINT can be very helpful.

                                                                                      Between our own SME’s and their contacts we can continue to “strive to be as objective as possible, without either fear-mongering or deliberately underestimating the threat.” :yes:

                                                                                    • #82451
                                                                                      sbrgirl
                                                                                      Participant

                                                                                        Thank you for the information! These days I have little to no trust in what I hear and read in the media.

                                                                                        I have a trip scheduled in eight weeks and yes, I am supposed to fly, so I do have a question about the following comments:

                                                                                        “One precaution to take in aircraft is to keep ones eyes closed (mucous membrane can be infection entry) and only breathe thru your mouth (nose has some filtration)”

                                                                                        I understand the eye part, but the part about being a mouth-breather seems counter intuitive. Did I misunderstand? Thank you!

                                                                                      • #82452
                                                                                        Corvette
                                                                                        Participant

                                                                                          Thank you for the information! These days I have little to no trust in what I hear and read in the media.

                                                                                          I have a trip scheduled in eight weeks and yes, I am supposed to fly, so I do have a question about the following comments:

                                                                                          “One precaution to take in aircraft is to keep ones eyes closed (mucous membrane can be infection entry) and only breathe thru your mouth (nose has some filtration)”

                                                                                          I understand the eye part, but the part about being a mouth-breather seems counter intuitive. Did I misunderstand? Thank you!

                                                                                          Sorry I mistyped it should read breathe through your nose because it offers some filtration

                                                                                          :)

                                                                                          (Fixed the post)

                                                                                        • #82453
                                                                                          Corvette
                                                                                          Participant

                                                                                            Here is an interesting development:

                                                                                            This is exactly how such things can spread.
                                                                                            No reason to panic, I am just illustrating it for educational purposes:

                                                                                            http://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-fears-ebola-spread-east-infected-nurse-232441108.html

                                                                                          • #82454
                                                                                            Corvette
                                                                                            Participant

                                                                                              UPDATE:

                                                                                              Current developments raise my concern level a bit.
                                                                                              THIS is not normal:
                                                                                              http://news.yahoo.com/top-doctor-nigerias-fifth-ebola-death-223359458.html

                                                                                              So many health workers infected so quickly by juts one dude.
                                                                                              Not normal for any strain of Ebola.

                                                                                              We might see an additional factor that favors this virus beyond simply the longer pre-symptom infectiousness I discussed in previous posts.

                                                                                              The virus is clearly distinct in the way it can perform its actual infection simply based on the epidemiology we learn.
                                                                                              If I were to speculate I might say one of its attachment glyco protiens may ahve mutates either for easier attachment in general or in some way that makes the ( still very difficult for the virus) airborne route a little less insurmountable from the virus’ perspective.

                                                                                              I definitely expect this strain not to fade away and be around for a while.
                                                                                              Greater spread is near certain in my mind and we will eventually see some infections an ven deaths here in the US.

                                                                                              Will it be areal threat form simply medical?

                                                                                              Possibly but not likely. more likely people panic will be much more dangerous.

                                                                                            • #82455
                                                                                              Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                              Moderator

                                                                                                What species is this Ebola a threat to?

                                                                                              • #82456
                                                                                                Tony
                                                                                                Participant

                                                                                                  A mosquito is a flying hypodermic syringe. And they have already been proven to transmit virus’. This might cause milder versions of the disease due to less exposure.

                                                                                                  I was reading this interesting thread last night, and the comment above reminded me of another similar question I have….if mosquitoes dine on the blood of a HIV infected person, and then move to a non-HIV person, how is it they cannot transmit the HIV virus. I have done the usual Google search, but am not convinced by the answer that it is not possible because the mosquito doesn’t inject blood, or that it is because of the way its jaw works. Surely its biting aparatus contact blood cells and thus could presumably transmit a blood virus??

                                                                                                  The suspicious part of me says that the consequences of the truth being known would be quite drastic…..mass migration of 2Bn people (my guess) from areas where mosquitos and HIV are prevalent, or even the mass murder of HIV sufferers.

                                                                                                • #82457
                                                                                                  sbrgirl
                                                                                                  Participant

                                                                                                    Hmm…definitely worth keeping an ear to the ground, of course that hasn’t been easy with the 24/7 coverage of the ongoing events in Ferguson.

                                                                                                  • #82458
                                                                                                    Corvette
                                                                                                    Participant

                                                                                                      In other breaking news I learned earlier today from a MedTech who has been to West Africa that the Doctors in Nigeria FAILED to take proper precautions the first day.

                                                                                                      That makes the implications of their infection with Ebola less ominous for the rest of us.

                                                                                                    • #82459
                                                                                                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                      Moderator

                                                                                                        What species is this Ebola a threat to?

                                                                                                        Ebola has infected monkeys, monkeys live in several areas of Florida.

                                                                                                        Pigs have had it, but is that only in the lab or in the field also?

                                                                                                        Bats?

                                                                                                        If it hit us, what other species are known to potentially carry it?

                                                                                                        Anything to this particular strain?

                                                                                                      • #82460
                                                                                                        Corvette
                                                                                                        Participant

                                                                                                          The bats are essentially immune to it.
                                                                                                          So its not a threat to them.
                                                                                                          I would speculate that other rodents could also serve as reservoir but current none are known.

                                                                                                          Generally primates Humans and Apes/Monkeys are threatened by it.
                                                                                                          I am curious if local rodents could be turned into carriers if/when it comes here.

                                                                                                        • #82461
                                                                                                          Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                          Moderator

                                                                                                            I am curious if local rodents could be turned into carriers if/when it comes here.

                                                                                                            We’ll see.

                                                                                                          • #82462
                                                                                                            Tony
                                                                                                            Participant

                                                                                                              Disease Expert Warns Muslims Plan’s to Make Dirty Bomb Containing Ebola

                                                                                                              http://tundratabloids.com/2014/08/jihadis-cultivating-ebola-for-future-attacks.html

                                                                                                            • #82463
                                                                                                              Max
                                                                                                              Keymaster

                                                                                                                Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                                                                I was reading this interesting thread last night, and the comment above reminded me of another similar question I have….if mosquitoes dine on the blood of a HIV infected person, and then move to a non-HIV person, how is it they cannot transmit the HIV virus. I have done the usual Google search, but am not convinced by the answer that it is not possible because the mosquito doesn’t inject blood, or that it is because of the way its jaw works. Surely its biting aparatus contact blood cells and thus could presumably transmit a blood virus??

                                                                                                                I had read roughly 20 years ago that there was a study being done to determine if HIV was transmitted by mosquitoes and the preliminary findings were that they did. Then funding got yanked and the program was shut down.
                                                                                                                Just in case I decided to not attend any outdoor gay parties.

                                                                                                              • #82464
                                                                                                                Corvette
                                                                                                                Participant

                                                                                                                  Wihle the HIV/ mosquito thing was always theoretically possible the virus simply was not success being viable in the insects gut.

                                                                                                                  As for Ebola:

                                                                                                                  Still going strong just as yours truly predicted..
                                                                                                                  NO reason to panic yet.

                                                                                                                  I’ll let you guys know when its time to panic ;)

                                                                                                                  http://news.yahoo.com/says-ebola-outbreak-could-strike-20-000-people-102050086.html

                                                                                                                • #82465
                                                                                                                  sbrgirl
                                                                                                                  Participant

                                                                                                                    Have you seen the latest from CDC director, Dr. Tom Frieden?

                                                                                                                  • #82466
                                                                                                                    M1-Guy
                                                                                                                    Participant

                                                                                                                      F
                                                                                                                      Any update on this? Seems from what I read it is getting more chaotic in Africa.

                                                                                                                      Arthur

                                                                                                                    • #82467
                                                                                                                      Corvette
                                                                                                                      Participant

                                                                                                                        Arthur sbrgirl,

                                                                                                                        there have been no significant new data.
                                                                                                                        very Slowly churning thru the locals.

                                                                                                                        No change in infection rates.

                                                                                                                        They are still high enough to not go away for many months but not so high to become a pandemic soon

                                                                                                                      • #82468
                                                                                                                        Corvette
                                                                                                                        Participant

                                                                                                                          PS: EBOV has never passed thru so many humans before.
                                                                                                                          As a result the chance that it will mutate into something more transmissible cannot be precluded.

                                                                                                                          Its likely mutating a bit every day.
                                                                                                                          What does that mean?
                                                                                                                          It doe snot mean that suddenly THE Virus mutates into another ONE Virus.
                                                                                                                          It means that multiple new sub strains are generated almost daily too many to track.
                                                                                                                          many of these will be dead ends and less transmissble than before.
                                                                                                                          But eventually one may come about that is more successful than the original in transmitting and maintaining in a human population.

                                                                                                                          So worst case scenario a strain we might see yet another jump in transmissibility.

                                                                                                                        • #82469
                                                                                                                          Max
                                                                                                                          Keymaster

                                                                                                                            Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                                                                            F.
                                                                                                                            Fantastic thread!!! It is so nice to read this unbiased, factual, and educational threat. GREAT questions.

                                                                                                                            It has been said that Zaire-Ebola will NOT transmit easily in industrialized nations. Do you agree with this evaluation? I ask this next question because I have read at least one false report about cases outside of Africa. Are there any cases that have been reported in the past 3 months outside of Africa?

                                                                                                                            David

                                                                                                                          • #82470
                                                                                                                            Corvette
                                                                                                                            Participant

                                                                                                                              F.

                                                                                                                              1) Fantastic thread!!! It is so nice to read this unbiased, factual, and educational threat. GREAT questions.

                                                                                                                              2) It has been said that Zaire-Ebola will NOT transmit easily in industrialized nations. Do you agree with this evaluation?

                                                                                                                              3) Are there any cases that have been reported in the past 3 months outside of Africa?

                                                                                                                              1) Thank you :)

                                                                                                                              2) Yes.

                                                                                                                              3) Cases have been shipped outside of Africa as you are probaly aware.
                                                                                                                              Last I checked I do not recall someone getting infected out of the continent but I believe antibodies to the disease have been found in a health worker outside of the continent. But it’s late and I would have to check my sources.

                                                                                                                              I Think it’s important for us to remember the following:

                                                                                                                              – It WILL show up in the US eventually
                                                                                                                              – That does not mean this will constitute an actual health crises (unless we see an interesting mutation the chances of which grow every month. BUT we are always just one good mutation away from a pandemic in our heavily populated and mobile planet anyway).
                                                                                                                              – There will however be a significant social threat and disruption if panic sets in. And then the sky is the limit, BUT it will still mean your primary threat will be the actions of humans, usually not the pathogen itself.

                                                                                                                            • #82471
                                                                                                                              Max
                                                                                                                              Keymaster

                                                                                                                                Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                                                                                F:
                                                                                                                                Thanks for the confirmation and information. I’ll keep watching for more info.
                                                                                                                                David

                                                                                                                              • #82472
                                                                                                                                Tony
                                                                                                                                Participant

                                                                                                                                  “Being at first skeptical that Ebola virus could be an aerosol-transmissible disease, we are now persuaded by a review of experimental and epidemiologic data that this might be an important feature of disease transmission, particularly in healthcare settings.”

                                                                                                                                  Article published on 17/9/2014, Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy
                                                                                                                                  http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/09/commentary-health-workers-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola

                                                                                                                                • #82473
                                                                                                                                  Corvette
                                                                                                                                  Participant

                                                                                                                                    Tony,

                                                                                                                                    Thanks for the link it has alot of good informaiton in it…but i do wish to clarify a couple of things for the board.

                                                                                                                                    Yes Ebola can aerosolize under the right conditions just like nearly 100% of all other pathogens.
                                                                                                                                    We’ve known this for a very long time and have observed a successful aerosol infection from pig to monkey in 2010.

                                                                                                                                    It stands to reason that this from of ebola with longer incubation times and milder symptoms that result in less social distancing by the folks around the victim might help aerosols to be absorbed or adsorbed by other people (before the EBOV in the Aerosol “dies” of Oxygen exposure).

                                                                                                                                    In recent months WHO and CDC are putting out all this “new ” information… but all this has been available to attendees of MVT CRCD at the Sunday morning CBRN Seminar since March/April.

                                                                                                                                  • #82474
                                                                                                                                    Corvette
                                                                                                                                    Participant

                                                                                                                                      I do take a bit of exception to this paragraph though which I consider a bit misleading:

                                                                                                                                      “The current paradigm also assumes that only “small” particles (less than 5 micrometers [mcm]) can be inhaled and deposited in the respiratory tract. This is not true. Particles as large as 100 mcm (and perhaps even larger) can be inhaled into the mouth and nose. Larger particles are deposited in the nasal passages, pharynx, and upper regions of the lungs, while smaller particles are more likely to deposit in the lower, alveolar regions. And for many pathogens, infection is possible regardless of the particle size or deposition site.”

                                                                                                                                      No body denies that larger or smaller particles than the most threating size around 5 microns can be ingested.
                                                                                                                                      its just well established that big particles dont get deep into the lungs and small particles are so readily exhaled before they can attach.

                                                                                                                                    • #82475
                                                                                                                                      Max
                                                                                                                                      Keymaster

                                                                                                                                        Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                                                                                        Any new developments with what is going on in Texas? Also the respiratory illness going around, my son 2 months ago had pneumonia and there were 6 other kids in the hospital at the same time for same thing. Tips on what to avoid, how to protect family, what works and doesn’t. Thanks ahead of time for all the straight forward info on here this forum is about the only source I trust.

                                                                                                                                      • #82476
                                                                                                                                        sbrgirl
                                                                                                                                        Participant

                                                                                                                                          Is it time to start to worry?

                                                                                                                                        • #82477
                                                                                                                                          Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                          Moderator

                                                                                                                                            Looking forward to an update once Forum issues fixed. :yes:

                                                                                                                                          • #82478
                                                                                                                                            Corvette
                                                                                                                                            Participant

                                                                                                                                              Any new developments with what is going on in Texas? Also the respiratory illness going around, my son 2 months ago had pneumonia and there were 6 other kids in the hospital at the same time for same thing. Tips on what to avoid, how to protect family, what works and doesn’t. Thanks ahead of time for all the straight forward info on here this forum is about the only source I trust.

                                                                                                                                              -The fact that it showed up in TX was very predictable.
                                                                                                                                              We knew eventually it would show up somehwere here.. World is too connected right now not to.
                                                                                                                                              This does not necessarily, mean an outbreak is yet underway here.

                                                                                                                                              -The best protection is a strong immune system. For anyone exposed to a lot of crowds lots of sleep and vitamin C are age old immune system helpers. there is little you can do beyond that unless you keep them home. And I do not believe we are at that point and EVD-68 is still quite rare.

                                                                                                                                              But you also bring up a valid point.. Many other dangerous pathogens are out there besides Ebola.
                                                                                                                                              If we ever get a panic due to Ebola thats big enough to take down the grid all of them will come back.

                                                                                                                                            • #82479
                                                                                                                                              Corvette
                                                                                                                                              Participant

                                                                                                                                                Is it time to start to worry?

                                                                                                                                                Not yet.
                                                                                                                                                I believe the panic Ebola may cause when there are enough cases to get people to panic will be more dangerous to life than the pathogen itself… (which does not transmit easily at all).

                                                                                                                                                The worlds obsession with Ebola is based on a combination of no cure and it fast and gruesome death.
                                                                                                                                                But even now more ppl die of the flu each year in this country alone then in all Ebola outbreaks ever worldwide combined.

                                                                                                                                                And this years Flu strain looks to be a bad one already.

                                                                                                                                                Don’t forget to get vaccinated against the Flu this year! :yes:

                                                                                                                                              • #82480
                                                                                                                                                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                Moderator

                                                                                                                                                  I believe the panic Ebola may cause when there are enough cases to get people to panic will be more dangerous to life than the pathogen itself…

                                                                                                                                                  Ditto that, fear combined with numbers can cause much bigger problems.

                                                                                                                                                • #82481
                                                                                                                                                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                  Moderator

                                                                                                                                                    I wonder how effective modern sewage treatment will handle Ebola virus?

                                                                                                                                                    Not just treatment of course, but say you have a stoppage in the line that requires personnel to fix.

                                                                                                                                                    What precautions if any would they need to take?

                                                                                                                                                    Has anyone in Public Works even considered this?

                                                                                                                                                    How long can Ebola virus remain a hazard pretreatment?

                                                                                                                                                    What possible carriers in U.S. bats, squirrels, insects, etc…?

                                                                                                                                                  • #82482
                                                                                                                                                    Corvette
                                                                                                                                                    Participant

                                                                                                                                                      1)I wonder how effective modern sewage treatment will handle Ebola virus?

                                                                                                                                                      2) How long can Ebola virus remain a hazard pretreatment?

                                                                                                                                                      3) What possible carriers in U.S. bats, squirrels, insects, etc…?

                                                                                                                                                      1) Yes very effective. Viruses in general and Filoviruses in particular are susceptible to non host environment. Our facilities are designed for much hardier stuff (e coli etc)
                                                                                                                                                      2) Minutes, when dried out.. In droplets until the droplets dry… Oxygen denatures the virus outer coat (which is adapted to an aqueous environment) and so permanently inactivates it
                                                                                                                                                      3) The bats in africa are suspected (suspected not known) to be carriers because they have evolved a certain immunity to the virus. But then there is still some debate on that. For a North American animal to function as a vector is has to be susceptible enough to become infected but have enough resistance to not get sick die.
                                                                                                                                                      Even though its not impossible I think it unlikely at this time.

                                                                                                                                                      Its all about a balance when we looks at such threats.
                                                                                                                                                      The world isnt ending but neither is everything just fine either.
                                                                                                                                                      Truth is in the middle.

                                                                                                                                                    • #82483
                                                                                                                                                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                      Moderator

                                                                                                                                                        2) Minutes, when dried out.. In droplets until the droplets dry… Oxygen denatures the virus outer coat (which is adapted to an aqueous environment) and so permanently inactivates it

                                                                                                                                                        Sewage line could stay wet quite a long time.

                                                                                                                                                        Not particularly worried, certainly not trying to spread fear, but the little details sometimes are missed by the “Big Brains!” :yes:

                                                                                                                                                        It wouldn’t be hard to imagine people vomiting and diarrhea into toilet then flushing, mainly curious if this has been thought of since African latrine is a bit different here.

                                                                                                                                                        If a worker had to deal with untreated sewage knowing whether they need extra protection would be nice to know.

                                                                                                                                                      • #82484
                                                                                                                                                        Corvette
                                                                                                                                                        Participant

                                                                                                                                                          GWNS:

                                                                                                                                                          Did some extra research when you mentioned environmental conditions, it tingled my spider sense. :wacko:

                                                                                                                                                          You are exactly correct and I was wrong. :bye:

                                                                                                                                                          EBOV can indeed stay active for days out of the body if environmental conditions are right such as high humidity.

                                                                                                                                                          It is not thought to be a primary infection route.. that is still vomitus and blood but it is possible.

                                                                                                                                                        • #82485
                                                                                                                                                          Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                          Moderator

                                                                                                                                                            Appreciate the effort, thanks. This type of scenario is my weakest area, sure I know how to prevent and isolate, but particulars of this are not my strong point.

                                                                                                                                                            I would suspect that there are many concerns here that may not be an issue in Africa.

                                                                                                                                                            My hope is government types will be proactive, but that is very lacking at times.

                                                                                                                                                            The recent photos of pressure cleaning sidewalk where victim vomited is but one example.

                                                                                                                                                            By the time they got around to it I would expect that it had been sufficiently dried out.

                                                                                                                                                            Don’t know if they were just using it as an applicator for chlorine or were blasting away under high pressure, maybe not the best idea if it had not dried out.

                                                                                                                                                            If we end up having to deal with an outbreak of some size doesn’t really worry me, but would really like to avoid stupid mistakes! :yes:

                                                                                                                                                            Along with the sewage thought, is how to deal with a contaminated septic system?

                                                                                                                                                            My limited experience suggest it’s the mundane type things where the greatest dangers sometimes present. Things that most Americans take for granted.

                                                                                                                                                          • #82486
                                                                                                                                                            Bill G.
                                                                                                                                                            Participant
                                                                                                                                                            • #82487
                                                                                                                                                              Max
                                                                                                                                                              Keymaster

                                                                                                                                                                Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                                                                                                                A ‘status’ site? May be of some use to help stay informed.

                                                                                                                                                                http://www.thedailysheeple.com/the-spread-heres-where-people-are-being-tested-for-ebola-with-results_102014

                                                                                                                                                              • #82488
                                                                                                                                                                Corvette
                                                                                                                                                                Participant

                                                                                                                                                                  Robert : Good link.

                                                                                                                                                                  Also a few more words here as I peruse the internet and see some poorly translated info:

                                                                                                                                                                  Ebola is a encapsulated virus.
                                                                                                                                                                  That makes it more susceptible to nearly all desinfection methods.
                                                                                                                                                                  Even alcohol should work well.

                                                                                                                                                                  When people look at some of the published MSDS they are looking at documents that give procedures to preclude all risk.

                                                                                                                                                                  As a rationalist/prepper we are all about managing risk not about decontaminating a lab table so well people can routinely rub open wounds over it w/o fear of infection.

                                                                                                                                                                • #82489
                                                                                                                                                                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                                  Moderator

                                                                                                                                                                    Interesting article from Jerome R. Corsi, a Harvard Ph.D., is a WND senior staff reporter.

                                                                                                                                                                    Dogs eat Ebola victims, spread plague
                                                                                                                                                                    ‘Canine infection must be considered as a potential risk factor’

                                                                                                                                                                    On Sept. 12, dog expert Stanley Coren, Ph.D., said in Psychology Today:

                                                                                                                                                                    Although dogs are susceptible to Ebola, the CDC concluded that “infected dogs are asymptomatic,” meaning that they do not develop symptoms. During the early phase of their infection, however, they can spread the disease to humans and other animals through licking, biting, urine, and feces. However, the good news is that once the virus is cleared from the dog it is no longer contagious. Dogs do not die from Ebola infections.

                                                                                                                                                                    Haven’t seen much info about this before. Good to know for someone like myself, whom K9’s play an important role in both general life and preparations.

                                                                                                                                                                    From a separate Veterinarian source:

                                                                                                                                                                    Other animals known to have been naturally infected are the African fruit bats, antelope, porcupines, rodents, pigs and dogs. There have been no documented infections in felines at this time.

                                                                                                                                                                    The good news is that I found no evidence (through clinical studies or any reputable source) that cats can be infected and/or can be a source of transmission.

                                                                                                                                                                    The bad news is that I also found no evidence to the contrary.

                                                                                                                                                                    “I know of no evidence for Ebola in domestic cats. They would have to come into contact with an infected bat or the bodily fluids of a human, or primate. They are likely to be susceptible. It is not impossible for infection of a cat to occur—just unlikely.”

                                                                                                                                                                  • #82490
                                                                                                                                                                    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                                    Moderator

                                                                                                                                                                      Here is a question I have yet to find an answer for, if an Ebola infected person or animal contaminated a water source such as a lake or pond what would it take to render water safe to drink?

                                                                                                                                                                      Note: This is a general question with no fear at this time for such contamination to actually occur. Obviously if there was some reason to suspect such contamination such as a dead body in water I would look for alternative water sources. This in more of a what if scenario to expand general Rationalist knowledge. :-)

                                                                                                                                                                    • #82491
                                                                                                                                                                      Corvette
                                                                                                                                                                      Participant

                                                                                                                                                                        GWNS: Good info!.

                                                                                                                                                                        A small amount of bleach or alcohol or detergent mixed in w/ the water will strip the encapsulation off the virus rendering it non infectious.

                                                                                                                                                                      • #82492
                                                                                                                                                                        Max
                                                                                                                                                                        Keymaster

                                                                                                                                                                          Time for an update:

                                                                                                                                                                          http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/12/health/ebola/index.html

                                                                                                                                                                          So what do you CBRN specialists think?

                                                                                                                                                                          The nurse wasn’t in full hazmat with positive pressure suits etc. Just a gown, gloves, face shield/mask etc. Do you think it could be airborne?

                                                                                                                                                                          This video just came out where some guy cried wolf on a plane and a hazmat team went into extricate him.

                                                                                                                                                                          What bugs me greatly is at 3:37 you will notice a hazmat member with a half zipped up suit. This guy didn’t have ebola but mistakes like that should not be made.

                                                                                                                                                                        • #82493
                                                                                                                                                                          Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                                          Moderator

                                                                                                                                                                            The nurse wasn’t in full hazmat with positive pressure suits etc. Just a gown, gloves, face shield/mask etc.

                                                                                                                                                                            The basic droplet protection is the protocol, not full suit. Should this level be increased? We’ll see.

                                                                                                                                                                            Do you think it could be airborne?

                                                                                                                                                                            Not enough information, if it was truly airborne I would expect faster infection rates.

                                                                                                                                                                            What bugs me greatly is at 3:37 you will notice a hazmat member with a half zipped up suit.

                                                                                                                                                                            What you are seeing is the secondary seal cover not in place.

                                                                                                                                                                            My biggest criticism of this Hazmat response in above video is it wasn’t necessary! You had an ambulatory patient that could have easily just deboarded plane without all the hype. Could have sent one person to sanitize area as a precaution. Exposure risk didn’t change by having “geeks in suits” escort him out.

                                                                                                                                                                          • #82494
                                                                                                                                                                            Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                                            Moderator

                                                                                                                                                                              So we have another healthcare worker infected.

                                                                                                                                                                              Officials: 2nd person tests positive for Ebola

                                                                                                                                                                              What if anything does this confirm?

                                                                                                                                                                              Unfortunately not much with the exception that Ebola is dangerous.

                                                                                                                                                                              Are the protocols sufficient?

                                                                                                                                                                              Is the training of Healthcare workers sufficient?

                                                                                                                                                                              Again I do not have sufficient data without being able to audit their actual procedures. Both of the above should be looked at possible contributors to these two cases.

                                                                                                                                                                              A tragic, but interesting development, will be to see how these two patients respond to treatment as well as their ultimate survival. Although statistically it will not be sufficient to read too much into it. These will be the beginning of learning how healthy Americans respond to treatment with early detection and advanced care.

                                                                                                                                                                              So in summary we are not at the legitimate panic stage. We will continue to monitor developments and update as information is available.

                                                                                                                                                                            • #82495
                                                                                                                                                                              sbrgirl
                                                                                                                                                                              Participant

                                                                                                                                                                                How about a little illegitimate panic? Seriously, I appreciate the time you guys are spending to provide the information being presented here.

                                                                                                                                                                              • #82496
                                                                                                                                                                                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                                                                                                                                                Moderator

                                                                                                                                                                                  No problem sbrgirl. :-)

                                                                                                                                                                                  Don’t feel too bad for being somewhat stressed, the amount of fearmongering is at a very high level.

                                                                                                                                                                                  We will continue to monitor events and provide factual information and will not downplay threat, but will not add fuel to panic either.

                                                                                                                                                                                • #82497
                                                                                                                                                                                  Lloyd
                                                                                                                                                                                  Participant

                                                                                                                                                                                    So we have another healthcare worker infected…
                                                                                                                                                                                    So in summary we are not at the legitimate panic stage. We will continue to monitor developments and update as information is available.

                                                                                                                                                                                    THIS is the kind of thing that has been worrying me:

                                                                                                                                                                                    CDC: Ebola Patient Traveled By Air With “Low-Grade” Fever



                                                                                                                                                                                    DALLAS (CBSDFW.COM) – The CDC has announced that the second healthcare worker diagnosed with Ebola — now identified as Amber Joy Vinson of Dallas — traveled by air Oct. 13, WITH A LOW-GRADE FEVER, a day before she showed up at the hospital reporting symptoms.

                                                                                                                                                                                    The CDC is now reaching out to all passengers who flew on Frontier Airlines flight 1143 Cleveland to Dallas/Fort Worth. The flight landed at 8:16 p.m. CT.

                                                                                                                                                                                    All 132 passengers on the flight are being asked to call 1 800-CDC INFO (1 800 232-4636).

                                                                                                                                                                                    MVT Texas 2015-2020
                                                                                                                                                                                    Team Coyote / Team Rekkr / Team Cowbell

                                                                                                                                                                                  • #82498
                                                                                                                                                                                    D Close
                                                                                                                                                                                    Moderator

                                                                                                                                                                                      I am torn right now and I’m guessing many others are too. On one hand, my level of distrust for official pronouncement has never been higher. Most of us would agree the level of apparent incompetence and sociopathy within the fed.gov is high. On the other hand, only 3 people have actually shown symptoms after presenting at hospitals here. I will never advocate panic and Mr. F had good advice about knowing when it’s time to go. Still, finding out the #3 passed through Dallas the same day Ms. D Close Jr. did, on Friday, gives me some unease. I travel a bit for work. The flight attendants are worried. They come into direct contact with passengers under a variety of circumstances. No gloves, mask or gown. Aircraft tend to have a UNiversal Precautions Kit, but probably not the smaller ones. My fear is that initial symptoms get masked by fatigue and flu season and voila! That is how I see this getting bigger.

                                                                                                                                                                                    • #82499
                                                                                                                                                                                      Max
                                                                                                                                                                                      Keymaster

                                                                                                                                                                                        Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                                                                                                                                                                        I’m keeping a close eye on this also but honestly, there isn’t a whole lot many of us can do but to keep an eye on it and make an assessment if we need to bug out or not.

                                                                                                                                                                                        I sure as heck am not staying in a metropolitan city with millions of people if it’s all gone Pete Tong.

                                                                                                                                                                                        Manifold

                                                                                                                                                                                      • #82500
                                                                                                                                                                                        Corvette
                                                                                                                                                                                        Participant

                                                                                                                                                                                          Ok I am going to go out on a limb here.. but IMO this looks like this thing is very slowly fizzling…..
                                                                                                                                                                                          if it wasnt, we should be at higher infection rates outside of Africa now.

                                                                                                                                                                                          next chance at a reset, the Bird Flu is stirring again:

                                                                                                                                                                                          outbreaknewstoday.com/egypt-h5n1-update-assiut-woman-dies-becoming-2nd-fatality-of-2014-2014/

                                                                                                                                                                                          Read more: http://uwgear.proboards.com/thread/674/talk-bit-current-ebola-outbreak?page=7#ixzz3JTD4AUbW

                                                                                                                                                                                        • #82501
                                                                                                                                                                                          xsquidgator
                                                                                                                                                                                          Participant

                                                                                                                                                                                            Ok I am going to go out on a limb here.. but IMO this looks like this thing is very slowly fizzling…..

                                                                                                                                                                                            Do you think that’s still the case? That’s the impression I get from lack of sensational media coverage rather than any research. ?

                                                                                                                                                                                          • #82502
                                                                                                                                                                                            Corvette
                                                                                                                                                                                            Participant

                                                                                                                                                                                              Tom,

                                                                                                                                                                                              yes, I do think from our 1st world perspective is fizzling.

                                                                                                                                                                                              if it was going to establish itself in the 1st world it had plenty of opportunity now to do by so.
                                                                                                                                                                                              And it missed its window of opportunity.

                                                                                                                                                                                              The increase in infectiousness combined with a possible decrease in lethality to most previous strains seems like it was insufficient to make this our reset.

                                                                                                                                                                                              But like I said, I am going out on a limb since the infection is still quite active and spreading.
                                                                                                                                                                                              So there is no certainty and never will be.

                                                                                                                                                                                              But even so, that’s my judgement of it at this time.

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