Is Patriot Dawn coming true?

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    • #145086
      Max
      Keymaster

        Well, here’s an interesting one for you. I don’t have a crystal ball, but looking at what is going on right now, I have a number of concerns. Are you ready for some far-fetched thinking? Here is a little summary:

        In my 2013 novel ‘Patriot Dawn: The Resistance Rises’ we started with a financial / economic collapse. This was simply a scenario that I built in order to get to what the book was about, which was a civil war as a reaction to domestic tyranny. The books are basically combat books set in a collapse – Patriot Dawn was written to tell a tactical story in a novel format, and thus needed the right story setting (see the sequel: “Patriot Rising: The Unbroken” for even more of a war story).

        What happened in Patriot Dawn was a terrorist attack / financial collapse. However, at a certain point in time when China realized that there was no more mutual benefit to be had with the current international order, they took the US down with a cyber attack on SCADA systems, which ushered in the true grid-down scenario.


        What we currently have is an epidemic, which I surmise is most likely to be in the form of a bio-weapon released by China. China can suffer the casualties it has so far due to COVID-19, because there are 1.6 billion of them, and they don’t care. In the US, we are now teetering on the edge of an economic collapse, due to these epidemic lock-downs. There are reports of an energy market collapse, which of course is in part due to the current oil war, overlain with worker restrictions in the US.

        Now, we are in lock-down till June. At least we are in Virginia. People are out of work, can’t pay bills. Soon, the civil unrest will start. What about the EBT cards? There are reports that the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, docked in Guam, is combat ineffective due to COVID-19 and the Captain is begging to be able to offload the casualties to shore and maintain a 10% skeleton crew to man the ship. So US forces are also starting to become combat ineffective.

        We are apparently in the process of restructuring our economy to rely less on China. The petrodollar is a key part of the US economy. We are seeing issues with that not only as the economy starts to crash, but as oil wars affect it.


        So, at some point, when does China wake up and say that the mutual benefit of being in a symbiotic relationship with the US is no longer worth it for them? The only thing that we are waiting for in the Patriot Dawn timeline is the cyber attack on our SCADA systems. Yes, the Chinese are in there, you better believe it. Imagine the areas that they could attack to make a bad situation worse as we suffer through the lock-down. EBT cards? Power grid? The list goes on.

        The COVID-19 virus appears to be very real. At what point is the cure worse than the disease? The ‘economy’ appears to me to be mainly a propped-up sham anyway – but there are going to be very real consequences to people not working, and not able to afford to feed themselves. Bills are not going to be paid. How far are we going to go before it all starts falling apart?

        The premise of Patriot Dawn was that Russia and China figured, at a certain point, that there was no benefit to the current world order, and they acted to pull the rug out from the US. They did not physically attack, but used cyber warfare. Later, they did invade parts of the Continental US in order to claim land and resources. Hence the massive battle with Russian forces in West Virginia!

        If this keeps going, you may want to become very familiar with the tactical manual. Mind you, if you have not trained yet, time is running out fast. MVT has been here for you, offering training since 2013 – have you taken advantage?

        All Max Velocity Tactical books are available from Amazon.com or any book retailer who can order them for you.

      • #145090
        T
        Participant

          Well put

        • #145107
          Lloyd
          Participant

            Well put

            Unfortunately – :good:

            MVT Texas 2015-2020
            Team Cowbell / Team Coyote / Team Rekkr

          • #145132
            MarkA
            Participant

              I wonder if this is what yesterdays Press Conference was in regards to. It appears that we prepositioned lots of equipment in El salvador…’to stop the cartels and other nefarious enemy.

            • #145163
              Max
              Keymaster
              • #145173
                DuaneH
                Participant

                  So this may need its own thread, but let’s wargame this.

                  I am not doubting that this is possible. I am just not sure of how probable it is, but yes I do assign it a probability. I have mentally wargamed this scenario over the past few years myself.

                  Why? The why for the most part doesn’t matter. We do not understand the Asian mindset or way of thinking. An example is Pearl Harbor.

                  When? That of course is the question. The big question that comes to my mind when thinking when is “can they assemble their military forces and prepare for war without us knowing?”

                  Where? Are they first going to attack our periphery? Such as our forces stationed outside of CONUS. Or are they going to go for the head and attack DC or the east coast? Or since it is geographically proximate and lacks concentration of Army bases the west coast?

                  How? Keep in mind that generally speaking we do not understand the Asian/Eastern way of thinking. Read Art of Way and Tactics of the Crescent Moon. Will the attack be head on or subtle? Personally I think a precursor to attack will be a major cyber attack.

                  To What Extant? Conventional forces or Nukes? In the Western mindset our goals have always been to capture the opponents resources and then their lands and people to make profit. While I don’t completely understand the Eastern mindset I am thinking that their goal may just be elimination of rivals.

                • #145174
                  Max
                  Keymaster

                    Not war as you envisage it. It’s been 12 years since China and Russia signd their pact to move away from the petrodollar.

                    1) China has already infiltrated our military and intelliegence communities. It is ridiculously obvious but we are mostly hamstrung by our PC culture. They have also infiltrated our networks, often via embedded backdoors that we purchase with Chinese systems.

                    2) 100% YES on the cyberattack, that goes without saying. Given what we may be moving into with the effects of COVID on the economy, we may not even know we are at war with China. Messing up just in time trucking processes? EBT cards? SCADA systems having issues, all exacerbating the problem.

                    3) Yes their militaty forces are ready. I do not know what the potential is for a conventional attack at least initially. Possibly local actions on the Pacific Rim? Quantity has a quality all of it’s own. Just ask the Korean vets, and let’s talk how many belts we can link up in series to our belt-feds. Before the barrels melt.

                    The capability is not in question. It just depends on a Chinese decisison. When to collapse the petrodollar and move to the petroyen.

                  • #145176
                    DuaneH
                    Participant

                      So I am thinking the cyber attack might not be a sledgehammer but more of a scalpel. All they would have to do is seriously mess up the EBT system and there would be riots in EVERY major metropolitan center in America.

                      I am still vacillating about the where. Even with modern technology, invasion of mainland US would still require a major logistical effort. Their military may be ready, but do they have the logistics in place already?

                      Looking at it geographically, I would think that they would need to acquire Japan and the Philippines prior to any large scale attack.

                    • #145184
                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                      Moderator

                        Not war as you envisage it.

                        This is the single greatest point to consider at this point in this scenario!

                        Economic, Cyber, Espionage, Assassination (key people, particularly in business), Sleeper Cells, and Special Operations Forces are short term legitimate threats.

                        Conventional invasion of U.S. mainland is not possible in near term. Major softening of U.S. Armed Forces would be required. Particularly regarding the U.S. Navy.

                        U.S. Navy surface combatants are not China’s biggest obstacle, the U.S. Submarine Fleet is and USAF Long range Bombers to a lesser extent.

                        China’s ASW capability is woefully inadequate to deal with our Submarines, however our ability to replenish submarine ordnance expenditures maybe more vulnerable.

                        U.S. Territories and Hawaii could be somewhat more vulnerable in short term if Chinese can solve U.S. Navy problem.

                        …but do they have the logistics in place already?

                        They lack the sealift capability in an opposed enviroment.

                        This does not lessen the threats to our interests globally and other threats initially listed above.

                        Longer term with careful Chinese preparations the threat to U.S. mainland becomes more probable.

                      • #145195
                        Lloyd
                        Participant

                          For 15-20 years I have envisioned a scenario where some “black swan” causes our system to collapse – economic crash, cyber attack, EMP attack, pandemic, etc… As I war gamed that scenario out in my mind, I figured that most of the rest of the world would sit back and laugh their asses off while America ate itself. At some point, maybe a year or two after the collapse, China, Russia, et al (under the guise of being UN Peacekeepers) would roll in here passing out their version of MRE’s to the 100 million or so half-starved survivors, and would be hailed as heroes.

                          Whoever comes in to “save” the remnants of America would likely never leave… And they would be able to conquer the whole country without having to fight tooth and nail for every inch.

                          Looking at China: They have a great need for productive farmland, oil, minerals, etc, which we have lots of. Demographically & socially, they need a relief valve for their huge population of youngish men who have no prospect of finding wives (due to decades of the one-child policy). Because of all that, once the American “cash cow” stops being useful by buying all their crap, they have nothing to lose by making a play for our actual real estate.

                          From what I understand, China lacks the ability to do a massive “invasion” as we think of it… BUT if we are “softened up” enough, all those ships that have been hauling plastic Walmart crap can haul troops, trucks, tanks, ammo, etc. Not to mention the fact that our politically correct society has allowed them to pre-stage thousands upon thousands of possible “sleepers” here – everything from workers at Chinese restaurants, to college students and professionals.

                          MVT Texas 2015-2020
                          Team Cowbell / Team Coyote / Team Rekkr

                        • #145198
                          veritas556
                          Participant

                            @max

                            You heard it here first.

                            I concur and have been saying that for weeks. This is classic Sun Tzu: strike when the enemy is weak


                            @G-w-n-s

                            Conventional invasion of U.S. mainland is not possible in near term

                            They don’t need to invade the mainland, our weak culture and scared-of-their-own-shadow political leaders have done that part for them. A landlord doesn’t need to live on your property to own the land.

                            My personal view (uneducated in such matters as it may be) is that we will suffer some sort of grid/telecom/satellite disruption that we will blame on the Chinese. Russia was so 2016, right? We will then retaliate in a limited military fashion, perhaps leveling one of their man-made South China Sea islands. That will open the door fully…

                          • #145200
                            Anonymous
                            Inactive

                              I did read Patriot Dawn but never read Patriot Rising.

                              I think Joe is closest to the reality here.

                              Russia and China both lack the capability to mount a Red Dawn-style invasion of the US.

                              Near-term both would be best suited to conducting psyop campaigns, yeah Russiagate was a joke but the Russians have attempted to use social media to heighten political tensions and enable fringe movements in the US. They’d be idiotic to not exploit our nation’s current political, economic, social, and racial tensions to distract us from their advances abroad, we’re a powder keg right now.

                              If you dont think those campaigns are effective, there are black folks in this country that still swear HIV is an Amerikkkan plot to kill black people, even though said psyop was from Soviets in Africa nearly 40 years ago.

                              Allow domestic tensions to heat to a boil, adding fuel to the fire when possible. When the iron is hot, then you seek political proxies to support, just as the Russians have assisted nationalist parties to fracture the European Union. When hostilities go hot then you can find proxies to aid militarily, such as in Donbass.

                              It’s very likely the US gov’t would retain control over gov’t friendly urban areas and also large military bases, which means they’d retain significant enough a nuclear deterrent to avoid a full invasion. Hostile powers seeking to back opposition forces would likely be restricted to sending foreign advisors at best. We might not see opposition forces getting the aid of Russian air support, but as previously noted Russia and China retain cyber capabilities that could very well be coordinated in concert with offensives by indigenous US forces. ISIS took Mosul while it was engulfed in a sandstrom, perhaps Free Appalchian Forces push for Nashville after their Russian advisors coordinate a cyber attack on the power grid, crippling police and military responses and allowing them to advance under cover of darkness.

                              Russia would be more inclined to support right-wing insurgents as they have shown an inclination towards other traditionalist, nationalist governments. The Chinese may be inclined to support some of the Maoists groups, though they are much more conservative about conducting such unconventional operations abroad and I can imagine PLA would be able to appreciate the precarious situation of (very divided) urban US leftists. This could actually become a point of conflict between Russia and China, since they might find themselves supporting conflicting proxies, just as Turkey and the US have come into conflict in Syria with mutually hostile proxies as they ostensibly both seek to overthrow Assad.

                              Furthermore, sponsor states aren’t always good patrons and may be content with a frozen conflict. Russia could likely push a total Assad victory in Idlib but they’re also trying to play games with flipping Turkey in spite of being Assad’s primary sponsor so they’ve held Assad forces back. Same goes for the US and SDF, the US doesn’t want SDF too strong because Ankara considers them terrorists and State still views Turkey as the viable long-term partner. We didn’t even get body armor from the Americans for Raqqa because State didn’t want to make Turkey mad.

                              Russia and/or China could support US insurgents but stop halfway, preferring a balkanized former United States preoccupied with conflicts between successor states rather than a reunified US under a reconstruction government that could reassert itself later down the line. Nobody gives a fuck about Yugoslavia anymore, they got chopped up into a bunch of proxy states and no longer have any power or influence.

                              If you find the notion of receiving Russian aid during the Boogaloo preposterous, many officers of the Contienntal Army cut their teeth in the French and Indian War (the Seven Years’ War for Max ;-) ) fighting the same French forces from which they were now receiving aid.

                              Obviously I AM NOT ADVOCATING ANYONE ESTABLISHING CONTACTS WITH RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE!!!

                              (Just to be clear for any forum readers, including our friends at the FBI and NSA.)

                              • #145217
                                Max
                                Keymaster

                                  Shoulda read Patriot Rising. Nuff said.

                              • #145205
                                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                Moderator

                                  …I have envisioned a scenario where some “black swan” causes our system to collapse – economic crash, cyber attack, EMP attack, pandemic, etc…

                                  All legitimate possibilities.

                                  …I figured that most of the rest of the world would sit back and laugh their asses off while America ate itself.

                                  They will be too busy with their own problems to care about us at that point.

                                  Economies are too interconnected and all of you suggested scenarios will bring down their economies as well, hence they will be distracted at the minimum.

                                  At some point, maybe a year or two after the collapse, China, Russia, et al (under the guise of being UN Peacekeepers)

                                  Max does an excellent job of portraying such possibilities in his Novels.

                                  You’ve read them haven’t you?

                                  Whoever comes in to “save” the remnants of America would likely never leave… And they would be able to conquer the whole country without having to fight tooth and nail for every inch.

                                  I totally disagree!

                                  The surviving remnants of our population will far less soft, weak willed, and hardly starving by that point.

                                  Such catastrophic events will cull the “wheat from the chaff” leaving a starkly different demographic here in the former USA.

                                  I believe the vast majority of those entitlement types and so called PC crowd will not survive and those that do will have changed their views after living such realities.

                                  From what I understand, China lacks the ability to do a massive “invasion” as we think of it… BUT if we are “softened up” enough

                                  …and other threats initially listed above.

                                  Longer term with careful Chinese preparations the threat to U.S. mainland becomes more probable.

                                  Particularly post-collapse.

                                  Not to mention the fact that our politically correct society has allowed them to pre-stage thousands upon thousands of possible “sleepers” here – everything from workers at Chinese restaurants, to college students and professionals.

                                  Economic, Cyber, Espionage, Assassination (key people, particularly in business), Sleeper Cells, and Special Operations Forces are short term legitimate threats.

                                  Again…

                                  Not war as you envisage it.

                                  There is far more nuance to Max’s statement than seems to be grasped here.

                                  And these listed threats…

                                  Economic, Cyber, Espionage, Assassination (key people, particularly in business), Sleeper Cells, and Special Operations Forces are short term legitimate threats.

                                  …are in fact potentially more dangerous than anything we have faced before.

                                  It isn’t guaranteed that such actions will be successful against the U.S.

                                  Though admittedly the true potential isn’t easily quantifiable as many haven’t been used in that scale before though the threat is real.

                                  It’s been 12 years since China and Russia signd their pact to move away from the petrodollar.

                                  This form of economic warfare is very possible with a moderate chance of succes.

                                  However I am not convinced in whole that; even if successful, it will be sufficient to insulate the BRICS countries from the global collapse that will likely occur.

                                • #145216
                                  Max
                                  Keymaster
                                  • #145237
                                    Max
                                    Keymaster
                                    • #145252
                                      veritas556
                                      Participant

                                        If mitigating premature death at all costs is to be the new “social contract” then yes, we’ll offer no defense when the next virus sweeps through, Chinese or otherwise. It’s like an economic die-in-place order. The Chinese are clever enough to win this sort of fight.

                                      • #145312
                                        Lloyd
                                        Participant

                                          The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian
                                          The Secret Speech of General Chi Haotian

                                          Excerpt:

                                          To resolve the issue of America we must be able to transcend conventions and restrictions. In history, when a country defeated another country or occupied another country, it could not kill all the people in the conquered land because back then you could not kill people effectively with sabers or long spears, or even with rifles or machine guns. Therefore, it was impossible to gain a stretch of land without keeping the people on that land. However, if we conquered America in this fashion, we would not be able to make many people migrate there.

                                          Only by using special means to “clean up” America will we be able to lead the Chinese people there. This is the only choice left for us. This is not a matter of whether we are willing to do it or not. What kind of special means is there available for us to “clean up America”?…..

                                          We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack, the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the United States. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a nuclear retaliation from the United States, China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half of its population would perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly, for the sake of our Party and State and our nation’s future, regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices we have to make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone.

                                          MVT Texas 2015-2020
                                          Team Cowbell / Team Coyote / Team Rekkr

                                        • #145602
                                          Max
                                          Keymaster
                                          • #145962
                                            Lloyd
                                            Participant

                                              Worth watching… China IS at war with us. Most of us just haven’t realized it yet.

                                              MVT Texas 2015-2020
                                              Team Cowbell / Team Coyote / Team Rekkr

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