Codevilla has written some great stuff and I think he makes some strong points here I find it tough to dispute. The US .mil is not currently capable of prevailing against our two largest and most capable adversaries, China and Russia. The author argues that the advantages each country possesses within their theater of operation are too strong for the US to overcome in a conventional conflict. This thesis was based on a game conducted by the Rand Corporation.
The allies of the US must also realize this fact and must wonder how to construct their own security strategy in the face of a Russian or Chinese threat.