What's the Real Fear of a Partial Government Shutdown?

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    • #89295
      Joe (G.W.N.S.)

        The American people will learn they can live without most of the Federal Government! ;-)

        My hope is for at least a month long partial shutdown! B-)


      • #89296

          Last time we played this game, I was in DC. The park service tried to restrict access to a lot of public spaces with crowd control barriers and sandbags. I never did the research to confirm it, but the barriers were rumored to be leased.

          I won’t soon forget the honor flight buses unloading a bunch of WWII vets at their memorial that was closed off by those silly fences, as if they would stop them. Those guys just strolled, shuffled, and wheeled right on by while a park ranger stood there impotently talking to her supervisor on a cell phone.

          I was simultaneously proud to be an American and deeply ashamed at the same time. It was a very surreal experience.

        • #89297
          Joe (G.W.N.S.)

            The only government shutdown of any remembrance is due to that silly attempt at thwarting Honor Flight Veterans!

            List of All Government Shutdowns and their Duration
            This list of government shutdowns in the past was drawn from Congressional Research Service reports:

            2018 (President Donald Trump): Jan. 20 to Jan. 23 – 3 days
            2018 (President Donald Trump): Feb. 9 – 1 day.
            2013 (President Barack Obama): Oct. 1 to Oct. 17 – 16 days
            1995-1996 (President Bill Clinton): December 5, 1995, to January 6, 1996, – 21 days
            1995 (President Bill Clinton): Nov. 13 to 19 – 5 days
            1990 (President George H.W. Bush): October 5 to 9 – 3 days
            1987 (President Ronald Reagan): December 18 to December 20 – 1 day
            1986 (President Ronald Reagan): October 16 to October 18 – 1 day
            1984 (President Ronald Reagan): October 3 to October 5 – 1 day
            1984 (President Ronald Reagan): September 30 to October 3 – 2 days
            1983 (President Ronald Reagan): November 10 to November 14 – 3 days
            1982 (President Ronald Reagan): December 17 to December 21 – 3 days
            1982 (President Ronald Reagan): September 30 to October 2 – 1 day
            1981 (President Ronald Reagan): November 20 to November 23 – 2 days
            1979 (President Jimmy Carter): September 30 to October 12 – 11 days
            1978 (President Jimmy Carter): September 30 to October 18 18 days
            1977 (President Jimmy Carter): November 30 to December 9 – 8 days
            1977 (President Jimmy Carter): October 31 to November 9 – 8 days
            1977 (President Jimmy Carter): September 30 to October 13 – 12 days
            1976 (President Gerald Ford): September 30 to October 11 – 10 days

            I lived and survived all of these.

            None of them hurt me personally! ;-)

          • #89298
            Joe (G.W.N.S.)

              My biggest complaint is that many Federal employees who are told to stay home will still get paid once shutdown is over.

              Those that continue working should be paid, but IMHO anyone who sits at home should not get paid, though they could use vacation and sick days to compensate, something federal employees have in abundance.

            • #89299

                Dog and pony show, like most political theatre. They only shut down “non-essential services”, right?

                Personally, I wish they would ACTUALLY shut down about 90% of what they think is “essential”, and leave it that way forever! I don’t think it would take very long for people who actually work for a living to figure out they don’t need all the crap the govt spends their stolen money on.

                MVT Texas 2015-2020
                Team Cowbell / Team Coyote / Team Rekkr

              • #89300

                  kinda like the snowstorms when “non-essential” personnel are told to stay home…..Take said list and eliminate the positions……if your “non-essential”, you’re paycheck is theft from the taxpayer……

                • #89301
                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                    I don’t think it would take very long for people who actually work for a living to figure out they don’t need all the crap the govt spends their stolen money on.

                    That’s the biggest potential gift to the American people that can come out of this!

                    I only hope the Democrats don’t figure it out too soon or they will cave on Wall funding. As noted above the longest shutdown was only 21 days and that was 23 years ago.

                    We need this example to demonstrate that we don’t need all their crap!

                    Then maybe…

                    Take said list and eliminate the positions…

                    …Just maybe we can get more people onboard with getting rid of some of this unneeded overhead. ;-)

                    A long shot maybe, but this is my hope.

                    So a month or longer would be nice. :yes:

                  • #89302

                      Partial allows the ruling party to pick and choose winners and losers. They will say, Grannie didn’t get her SS check because those mean old (Democrats…Republicans) didn’t fund the Social Security Office.

                      99% of the LEOs and IRS will be classified as essential.

                    • #89303
                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                        The goal is hearts and minds, maybe a little education for those open to it.

                        Remember this is what I am promoting and others too outside of government.

                        I am not trying to fix the unfixable, more people wake-up more potential help later. Small goals.

                        Yes I would like a border wall, but overall I don’t give a crap about about political fighting beyond any pro-Liberty items we can get for the short-term.

                        Sure a wall doesn’t fix everything, but does anyone think our border should be a open space?

                      • #89304

                          A wall won’t be a “be all end all,” but it will channel most of the influx.

                          There are places in the Big Bend where you probably couldn’t build a wall. It’s very rough country, but it doesn’t keep them from back packing 80-90 lb loads of dope some 70-90 miles up to the major east west highway. The good news there is that the mules usually make a round trip back to Mexico.

                          There are too many military aged males coming across. You can bet someone here is either waiting or willing to provide them guns.

                          Finding and apprehending them would be much easier if they were channeled to certain areas that can be flooded with agents.

                          If the agents will actually get out of their vehicles and make an apprehension.

                          Seismic and other sensors are great but it takes boots on the ground to actually collar them.

                          The influx will end up eroding our freedoms and liberties when the PTB decide they need more, window dressings laws, instead of enforcing what is already written.

                        • #89305
                          Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                          • #89306
                            First Sergeant

                              Rapper Talib Kweli: ‘Nazi Germany Had a Wall Called the Berlin Wall’


                              Must be a victim of public education!

                              I read that the other day and I still don’t have the words to describe the stupidity.

                              Signal Out, Can You Identify
                              Je ne regrette rien
                              In Orbe Terrum Non Visi

                            • #89307
                              Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                                Well the sad stories are starting to come in and as usual most are based on ignorance!

                                So your a government employee and one of the few affected. Oh no it’s the “end of the world!” :wacko:

                                These people need to pull the heads out of their rearend. I’ll skip the fact you should have money saved up. ;-)

                                Any of the better Credit Unions that specialize in Federal employees have game plans for this since forever. Offering 0% APR loans up to your direct deposit amounts that are paid upon resumption of pay.

                                Of course you have to actually apply, which maybe too much effort for some.

                              • #89308
                                Dark Knight

                                  Partial allows the ruling party to pick and choose winners and losers. They will say, Grannie didn’t get her SS check because those mean old (Democrats…Republicans) didn’t fund the Social Security Office.

                                  99% of the LEOs and IRS will be classified as essential.

                                  I am a contractor supporting a govenment entity. Our contract is paid upfront so I am working. This not my first shut down. SSchecks will be sent out, as will many other “entitlement” benefits.
                                  I was recently looking at a chart that showed the percentage of personnel at the impacted agencies (since several Departments and Aencies have already been funded) and was suprised by what I saw.
                                  EPA over 90% essential
                                  GSA over 90% essential
                                  DHS less than 50% essential.

                                  I just reead a news article that a lot of IRS was deemed non-essential, but after a certian period of time, because tax season is approaching, this will be reviewed and additional personnel may be classified essential and brought back to work.

                                  I work in Continuity of Operations so I know a little about how the Essential/non-essential is determined (it is not exactly the same for COOP and Shutdowns). Not everything that is not essential during this type of event is something that should be done away with. During a shutdown the part of an organization that processes personnel actions (hiring, firing, promotions, etc) may be non-essential, but you cannot do without it during normal operations. Some organizations are doing R&D or building software, etc. This can be non-essential during a shutdown, but I dont think that it should go away completely.

                                  I am not saying that there are not parts of the government that I think can go away (there are some entire Departments I think should be eliminated). I just thought I would provide a perspective that some outside the beltway may not have.

                                  Just my $.02

                                • #89309

                                    Apparently the Army Reserves are not essential because during last year’s shutdown I got told on 12 hrs notice to not come to drill.

                                    That sucked because I had a hotel reservation (no LIK) luckily the hotel was sympathetic.

                                    What really sucked is they decided to make up the weekend in June during my previously scheduled vacation.

                                    So yeah, that is my biggest fear for this year’s shutdown.

                                    I hope that the shutdown continues for long enough for people to realize how many non essential people there are in government.

                                  • #89310
                                    Dark Knight

                                      DoD is already funded. Should be no impact.

                                    • #89311
                                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                                        The faces of evil! ;-)

                                        Two more days to tie longest shutdown and the World hasn’t ended. ;-)

                                        Though the fearmongering is ratcheting up!

                                        I average at least two calls daily asking if this or that scare is real.

                                        My favorite meme…

                                        They Live!

                                      • #89312


                                          “They Live!” – well Pelosi just barely. I think without her regular dementia meds she would be playing with her poop outside a 7/11

                                        • #89313
                                          Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                                            Well hardly a done deal, hatred of Trump is not going to keep these divided leftist together. Despite media propaganda all is not rosy in the Socialist camp.

                                            Democrats Crack on the Wall


                                            Congressional Democrats are ditching House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s ardent opposition to any barrier or wall along the U.S. border with Mexico, as the partial government shutdown continues and President Donald Trump takes his case directly to the border itself.

                                            ““If we have a partial wall, if we have fencing, if we have technology used to keep our border safe, all of that is fine,” Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL), the chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), said on CNN.

                                          • #89314

                                              All this hype over the wall is stupid IMO, you can always dig tunnels. It might cut back on some of the migrants but most of the illegal drugs get smuggled through legal points of entry already. I’ve also seen ladders longer than 30 feet, that doesn’t help either.

                                              I’m more concerned about the push to seize land from thousands of individuals, states, and tribes at the border through eminent domain to build the damn thing. Even worse is the suggestion that Trump will have the military do it if he can’t get Congress to approve it. That’s a hell of a lot more property stolen by the federal government than folks were ready to shoot the feds over during Bundy Ranch. If a Democrat started seizing guns in the name of national security everybody on the right would be calling for Civil War II, I fail to see how seizing so much private land isn’t as tyrannical.

                                              There is a morbid part of me that is curious how bonkers things could get if this drags on long enough, maybe we’ll get that incoming recession a year early.

                                              IMO the smart thing would be to approve funding for the wall in areas where the federal government actually owns the land, that would chop off two-thirds of the funding necessary. It’s all a matter of political brinkmanship a this point, though.

                                            • #89315
                                              Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                                                All this hype over the wall is stupid IMO, you can always dig tunnels.

                                                Show me anyplace that requires even the least bit of security that doesn’t have a fence/wall.

                                                Just because anything can be breached with enough effort doesn’t mean fence/wall isn’t a deterrent.

                                                I’m more concerned about the push to seize land from thousands of individuals, states, and tribes at the border through eminent domain to build the damn thing.

                                                While I’ve heard this complaint, I have yet to hear a coherent explanation of the true loss proposed. We are talking a fence/wall that is less than a foot thick in examples I am aware of and a jeep path to drive by to monitor, maintenance, and conduct repairs.

                                                We aren’t talking the Great Wall of China! ;-)

                                                Most of the properties along the border are very large, we aren’t talking about rendering them unusable.

                                                Feel free to cite some examples contrary to my comments as I am interested.

                                                Eminent domain to aid in security of nation seems legitimate to me, eminent domain to give to developers to get more tax money (really happened) is tyrannical.

                                                Hell I might even compromise with people that truly have a problem with a fence/wall to their Southern property line. Just build fence/wall to the North of their Northern property line. ;-)

                                              • #89317
                                                Joe (G.W.N.S.)


                                                  We can disagree in a more coherent manner! ;-)

                                                • #89318

                                                    There are places where the wall will effectively cede propertyholder’s land to Mexico.


                                                    Ignore all the ballyhoo over the environment (I have an environmentalist streak myself but it’s irrelevant vis a vis this conversation), in this example 70% of the land will be on the de facto Mexican side of the border. I’m going to take a wild guess the federal government only reimburses them for the area taken by the wall itself, not the land no longer accessible to the propertyholder. Furthermore, many of these eminent domain cases don’t pay actual market value, just whatever the government decides is market value, it’s no different than a mandatory gun buyback. Justin Amash (I’m a big fan, ijs) has proposed legislation that would make it easier for property owners to challenge government land appraisals, but of course that can’t be debated one way or the other under the current gridlock.

                                                    If we were legislators, perhaps a first phase of funding covers the third of land owned by the federal government. Then another phase surveys land not held by the federal government and pays for the wall in areas where landowners agree to sell. This actually might save some money because otherwise many of these cases will get tied up in court, delay things anyway, and make a big media spectacle the Democrats can play even further. You probably would still wind up with enough wall through voluntary sales to make an effective deterrent without outright robbing people or breaking the bank.

                                                    If you seriously think that an “epidemic” of illegal immigration justifies mass seizure of private land under a Republican administration, I can guarandamntee you there are going to be many more folks feeling justified that an “epidemic” of mass shootings justifies mass seizure of private firearms when Democrats regain power.

                                                    I can’t view forcing folks to surrender land at gunpoint as anything but theft. (And that’s what it is, if anyone were to refuse their land being seized it would end with them being shot by the same folks who would be shooting the rest of us if/when we don’t turn in our firearms.) Everybody (legitimately) bitched when Obama tried to govern by executive order, now we have an administration playing with states of emergency.

                                                  • #89319
                                                    Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                                                      I’ll start at the end for convenience.

                                                      Everybody (legitimately) bitched when Obama tried to govern by executive order, now we have an administration playing with states of emergency.

                                                      There is a huge difference! Obama did, Trump has threatened, at least to this point. Seems to me to be a pressure negotiation tactic.

                                                      How many times have people; even alleged Trump supporters, gone bat shit crazy over rumors Trump was going to do something or another that never happened? :yes:

                                                      For a few examples…

                                                      He’s another neocon planning on sending a 100,000 troops into Syria?

                                                      He’s starting WWIII on the Korean peninsula?

                                                      Trade war with China that will kill economy?

                                                      …and on and on, but it’s all bullshit!

                                                      Remember I am not Trumps biggest fan, but with two Supreme Court positions filled and a third possible. He has exceeded my wildest expectations!

                                                      Another point to remember I believe we are past the point of no return! We’re just buying time til one of many possible events brings forth the collapse.

                                                      So all of my views are colored by that.

                                                      Furthermore, many of these eminent domain cases don’t pay actual market value, just whatever the government decides is market value…

                                                      I’ve heard these fearmongering complaints as well, but only know of that happening at the State and Local level. Might be true, but haven’t seen evidence of it.

                                                      I’ve been involved in one eminent domain case (involving a non-profit) and the result was about 5x market value with no lobbying or kickbacks involved. So that’s what I know, vice heard.

                                                      Is this the norm? You tell me!

                                                      We were told how they were going to screw us over and blablabla, but it wasn’t even remotely true.

                                                      …justifies mass seizure of private firearms when Democrats regain power.

                                                      I am confident they’ll come up with some justification with or without this so called precedent. ;-)

                                                      So let’s see what actually happens before we freakout. :yes:

                                                      If anyone is actually getting screwed over then we can react, maybe even do something.

                                                      Until then chill out.

                                                    • #89320

                                                        I’m going to guess RR has never seen the desert in Arizona or New Mexico. It has value only as land. There is little or no value to be had/gained from most of it. The desert will not support live stock. Eminent domain would be a windfall for many of the land owners.

                                                        The Rio Grande Valley in Texas is fertile. It is actually for the most part the delta of the Rio Grande River. However, even at that much of it is not in production. The ranch land(livestock) produces more in taxes for the county than it does for the ranchers.

                                                        In places like Roma, Texas, once the bad guys are on this side of the river they are within probably less than 200 feet from a residence they can hide in.

                                                        There a large areas of brush all along the river from Brownsville to Lake Falcon. Prime spots for smuggling anything, in either direction. And believe me, if it can be smuggled for money, it will be. Anything from drugs and humans going North to chicken parts, used clothing, and used tires going south, and anything in between.

                                                        I know this because I worked that area for 18 years out of my 20 years in the Border Patrol and Customs Enforcement/Investigation, which now is known as ICE.

                                                        ICE and the creation of Homeland Security is another whole thread all by itself.

                                                      • #89321
                                                        Joe (G.W.N.S.)

                                                          …I worked that area for 18 years…

                                                          I had hoped that some with first-hand knowledge would comment, thanks.

                                                          I imagine that there will be some holdouts for a variety of reasons from principle to politics, with a few wanting even more money.

                                                          We’ll see what happens.

                                                          Here’s some more information about the above the eminent domain case I’ve been involved in.

                                                          It started with a plea to donate property for the benefit of the community.

                                                          We politely declined as we did not have such resources as a small non-profit. ;-)

                                                          Roughly a month later we received a formal offer that was extremely generous. Which we took and they even paid to move us beyond the settle money.

                                                          Despite dire warnings and advice that we must have special legal representation. We did of course have a pro bono quiet monitor, but it wasn’t needed. Things went smoothly with no animosity.

                                                          Can’t blame them for asking us to donate, they don’t know unless they ask. Anymore than us refusing.

                                                          Can’t help but wonder if some of these eminent domain cases don’t get off to the wrong foot by people panicking.

                                                        • #89322

                                                            Joe (G.W.N.S.) I started in the BP back in 1980. Fun job if you like the outdoors. Tracking is a hoot, but you have to know your AO and then it becomes easier. Traffic checkpoint is a necessity…up to a point, after which it becomes a very useful tool for government propaganda and a way to get more money from DC.

                                                            Customs had a patrol and all we did was work the river for smugglers. Tracking skills came in handy there to find the crossings. When I say that there are many places on that river that resemble a jungle I am not overstating it. There are places where on a new moon night, even with 2nd gen NVG’s (the best we had at the time) you could not see your hand in front of your face. We worked off of knowing the area and sound.

                                                            It’s a no-man’s land for the locals except for the dopers/mafiosos/cartel guys.

                                                            We also worked Falcon Lake. Back to know the AO. Nothing but ranch land, mesquite trees, cactus, old oil fields along our side from Falcon Dam all the way to Zapata, Tx. Hard to work because you need access and for that you need keys. To get keys you get them from the land owned, which has a possibility of compromising you from the git-go. We got around a lot of that by using boats.

                                                            When Trump was down there they made a big deal out of 500 lbs of weed. We’d interdict it by the ton coming across the lake.

                                                            Out in West Texas where I am now, it’s desert and mountains. You can buy land for a couple of hundred dollars an acre. Of course you have to drill a well and pay for electricity to come to your place unless you are really serious about being off the grid, including no cell service.

                                                            The good news is the need for a wall is obviated in some areas by the mountains. The bad news is that the river is about 10 feet wide and a couple of feet, during those times of the year when there is actually water in it.

                                                            I’ll cut this because I can go on about Arizona too. But it’s essentially the same story.

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