So what gives with the missing airplane?
March 18, 2014 at 2:52 pm #63493EricParticipant
What are your theories??
I personally believe it was swiped by radicals, and will be loaded with some chemical, nuclear, or high explosive weapons and crashed into a city somewhere in the US, UK, or Israel. I hope I am wrong.
March 18, 2014 at 2:58 pm #63494CorvetteParticipant
I tend to share the belief that we’ve not see the last of this plane. I dont think it has crashed. I think its in one piece waiting to be re-purposed.
March 18, 2014 at 3:19 pm #63495Former SapperParticipant
Hijacked and we’ll see it again at a later date.
March 18, 2014 at 4:23 pm #63496MaxKeymaster
Occam’s Razor – “When you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better.”
I use this theory every day in my profession, and you know what, it’s almost always right. We boil it down to “The simplest answer is usually correct.”
Like most of us, I’ve been following the reported loss of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 on a daily basis…I’ve also been annoyed by the various talking heads and conspiracy theories tossed about, which, while they glue eyeballs to the TV, and sells lot of commercial time, often has little relation to the truth.
Then I read this article, and while not as intriguing with plot twists, or full of subterfuge as the news media would like you to believe, it seems to make sense. Hard to argue with the author’s background, he has 20 years experience as a Canadian Class-1 instrumented-rated pilot for multi-engine planes.
March 18, 2014 at 5:18 pm #63497EricParticipant
I read that earlier today, and it does make a lot of sense. But the possibilities are endless.
March 18, 2014 at 6:00 pm #63498CorvetteParticipant
Motive for establishing sensational stories.
March 18, 2014 at 8:19 pm #63499JCParticipant
Based on the few actual fact that have been released, my take on this was hijacking. It seemed to me that the electronics going off line, followed by the turn and no radio comms indicated an overt action by someone.
But the Wired article is very compelling. As far as I can tell, here are the few actual known facts:
12:41 a.m. Flight 370 departs Kuala Lumpur International Airport for Beijing. Heading is NE.
1:07 a.m.: The ACARS, sends its last communication.
1:19 a.m.: One of the pilots (believed to co-pilot), makes last verbal contact with ATC, saying, “All right, good night.”
1:21 a.m.: The transponder stops responding.
1:22 a.m.: last good radar fix – still on course
1:28 a.m. radar paints unknown aircraft now flying in westerly direction
2:15 a.m.: radar last detects what’s believed to be the plane, over the small island of Pulau Perak in the Strait of Malacca, hundreds of miles off course.
If we assume a front gear/tire fire on takeoff (smoldering/burning rubber), then it has 26 minutes to spread in the electronics bay under the cockpit until the ACARS is effected and goes off line – but pilots are not aware of fire yet (and would not know the ACARS was off line). There is then a 14 minute lull as the fire progresses, until the transponder goes dark 2 minutes after the last radio call of “good night” (all is normal). Then sometime in the next 6 minutes the pilots become aware of the fire, they secure busses, etc and make the left turn to a westerly heading (for a divert to the nearest safe field, Langkawi) .
All pilots are taught to Aviate, Navigate, and Communicate. In that order of priority. So:
1) Aviate – fly the plane & work the emergency (pull CB’s, isolate busses, shutdown equipment, etc)
2) Navigate – turn towards the closest suitable field
3) Communicate – not possible due to electrical fire/problems
Yes – this is a very compelling scenario
March 18, 2014 at 10:13 pm #63500MaxKeymaster
Hijacked and we’ll see it again at a later date.
This is also my opinion and agree with all of you who have said the same thing. Now, the important questions are:
Who wants an airplane like that?
Who would need to go to those lengths to acquire it?
The responsible party would need to fit both of those criteria.
If someone had simply wanted it crashed, they could have accomplished that much easier.
My guess is: If it disappeared unexpectedly and without a trace, it can be made to reappear in much the same fashion coming from one less advanced air control zone and heading right into another. Now you have a plane with the appearance of legitimacy on the way to an unsuspecting target with some unsavory payload. It could be a people payload, an explosive, biological, or the airplane itself could simply be crashed “as is” into a target. It could have been acquired by someone who had to go to those great lengths to get it or just someone who wanted it to appear that way. At this point, there are many possibilities.
March 19, 2014 at 1:19 am #63501CWParticipant
I think it’ll show up again a year or two down the road. Probably repainted as a different airline, etc. Filled with explosives or even just fuel. Knowing nothing about avionics, would it be possible to reprogram the transponders, etc? If the goal was to steal the jet for future use as a gigantic missile, a new paintjob and tail numbers would only get you so far, I’m assuming. You’d need a new electronic ID to fly the plane inside ATC areas without suspicion, correct?
March 19, 2014 at 3:03 am #63502Yankee TerrierParticipant
I am with Bergmann, I don’t think we have seen the last of this airplane, and while I have been quite a user of Occam’s Razor, I really don’t think it fits…I am pretty certain that this has deliberate action written all over it in disappearing ink..And I have made my living as a long haul airline pilot in the same part of the world for 28 years.
March 20, 2014 at 2:05 am #63503Yankee TerrierParticipant
An update all, a close former coworker of mine was on CNN and defined a set of conditions that come back under Occam’s Razor, and do fit. His name is Dave Funk. And he says it well, and very much to the contrary to what I have been thinking.. His point of view is worthy of a look and a thought.
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