On Mexican State Collapse

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    • #124559
      Max
      Keymaster

        An article, below.

        I had not realized that kill squads were murdering the families of soldiers engaged in the Culiacan Battle.

        It could be Mexico that tips this whole thing off, with a flood of illegals over the border and open Cartel Warfare.

        Thoughts?

        https://claireberlinski.substack.com/p/on-mexican-state-collapse-a-guest

      • #124563
        Joe (G.W.N.S.)
        Moderator

          It’s too early to tell, but it’s not a good sign.

          Mexico will pay a stiff price for this surrender to a Cartel. All of them can’t help, but he emboldened by this regardless of using the excuse it was to save lives.

          I also find myself wondering what the typical large Socilist controlled U.S. city would react to such a blatant and overwhelming use of force against law and order?

          • #124565
            Max
            Keymaster

              The key part I had not realized was the targeting and murder of the families of the soldiers who were fighting the cartel. To your point about this happening in a large Socialist controlled US city, I am sure they would be all about it initially with sending in SWAT teams to fight the Cartel attackers. But the moment families of SWAT were getting targeted, it would be all over. This is also the kind of thing you see written about by the extreme commentariat on some of the alt-right sites – targeting of families of police in case of a tyrannical crackdown.

              On second thoughts, what is the psychology of that in terms of SWAT / paramilitary type police forces engaged with forces such as this Cartel, and then getting news of their families being targeted? Do they go home, or do they go harder? Could this happen in border cities? Arizona? Does this ever happen to border patrol? To what extent did this happen in Culiacan and was this an overblown report, and what effect did it have on the surrender?

          • #124564
            Hessian
            Participant

              I haven’t seen anything about the cartel releasing kill squads to murder the families of the soldiers, but this has always been a big concern of Mexican military and police (if anything pops up i’ll update).

              Mexico hasn’t had the best track record with stability (as mentioned in the article). If it turned into an outright war between cartels and the Mex Gov it would cause a huge humanitarian crisis. I am not sure if many would make the trip up from south and central america but the number of Mexican nationals would be crippling to the southern boarder states.

              A solution could be to send US troops to setup a safe zone 20+/- miles from our current border in Mexico’s territory. The last time in recent history where it was suggested that our military defends our boarders, several groups tied to the swamp were more concerned about keeping troops in the middle east.

            • #124566
              Andrew
              Participant

                Mexico has been corrupt since way before I got down to the border in 1980 Back in ’83 we were encouraged to work with the Mexican police, local, state, and federal.

                The guy that is on the sidewalk who is gonna “watch” your car while you do whatever is as crooked and, more importantly, as honest as he can be. He has to have enough money to pay his higher ups so that he can keep his job.

                Mex feds, same deal. They will actually work with you until you are interested in someone who is paying protection. Then it will be a stall or a lie.

                Their whole system law enforcement and civil service is corrupt. All the way up through national government.

                You would not look too closely at the vehicles the Mex feds were using, because the majority of them had been stolen in the US.

                It is a fact of life and has been accepted by the general population.

                The cartels used to be low key, but since the inter/intra cartel battles for supremacy have started the old norms no longer apply.

                The general population has no real way to fight back, no weapons and voting is a waste of time for the average person in Mexico.

                We are infiltrated nationwide with the cartels. IMO our best hope is to clamp down on them here before we see the cartels taking on the police in our cities. I don’t see us invading Mexico…ever. Can you imagine the news stories on that and the international reaction?

                Again, IMO, we have politicians here, on all levels, who are also on the take, we just hide it better.

              • #124567
                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                Moderator

                  I am sure they would be all about it initially with sending in SWAT teams to fight the Cartel attackers.

                  I am not so sure, when faced with overwhelming numbers with heavier firepower.

                  …was this an overblown report, and what effect did it have on the surrender?

                  I’ll see what I can find out.

                • #124570
                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                  Moderator

                    Again, IMO, we have politicians here, on all levels, who are also on the take, we just hide it better.

                    More and more I think our corruption is worse, because we pretend we are better.

                  • #124574
                    Andrew
                    Participant

                      The corruption here goes beyond just drug money. The selling of favors, big donors getting diplomatic posts, insider trading, allowing foreigners to influence our elections (I mean folks like Soros, not the current bovine scat re Trump/Ukraine).

                      But, at the same time, we have only ourselves to blame, because we sit back and do not get involved. Too busy with sitcoms, little league, Facebook, and on and on to demand a stop to it.

                    • #124575
                      trailman
                      Participant

                        This read was interesting on the reach of the “cartels”, basically going legit with drug money.

                        Understand that the fighting in Culiacan is not just another episode in the “drug war,” nor is it merely an incident of organized crime. What’s happening Mexico right now is more like an insurgency. Yes, drug-trafficking is one of the things the cartels do, but it doesn’t nearly describe what they are or what role they’re playing in the disintegration of civil society in Mexico.

                        Indeed, over the past decade cartels have diversified their economic activities to include everything from oil and gas production to industrial agriculture to offshore commercial fishing.

                        https://thefederalist.com/2019/10/21/a-drug-cartel-just-defeated-the-mexican-military-in-battle/

                        • This reply was modified 3 months ago by trailman.
                      • #124600
                        hellokitty
                        Participant

                          The truth is we are in a war with the wrong group. Our REAL enemy and a clear and present danger to the US is the Mexican cartels. Period.

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                        • #124604
                          Andrew
                          Participant

                            The truth is we are in a war with the wrong group. Our REAL enemy and a clear and present danger to the US is the Mexican cartels. Period.

                            I have had that thought more often than once. I suspect that it is only a matter of time before much of their military either deserts or defects to the cartels, along with more hardware.

                          • #124606
                            AntMan
                            Participant

                              And now we know why Mexico has so many consulates in the US. The easier to coordinate from.

                              2xcqbc
                              1xclc

                            • #124608
                              hellokitty
                              Participant

                                Just to be clear. I am talking about the Cartels NOT the Mexican people, who overall are hard working folks. But the Cartels…fuck em all.

                                Full disclosure- I had a friend who was executed by the Cartels. So I hate them all.

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                                • #124622
                                  AntMan
                                  Participant

                                    I’m sorry for your loss.

                                    We are on the same page in case my post wasn’t clear enough.

                                    My issue with the consulates is that the Mexican government has gone from trying to keep the peace to letting the fox guard the henhouse. And now we have (assuming a cartel infiltrated govt) a hostile power with the largest consulate presence in conus, as well as all of the children of leadership who have been living in the us because it is safer, going to us schools, and ready to add drug money to the destabilization effort, which doesn’t lead to confidence that we will be able to avoid Mexico’s fate without a significant national backbone to face the threat.

                                    2xcqbc
                                    1xclc

                                    • #124628
                                      hellokitty
                                      Participant

                                        Did not think your post implied that. I just wanted to make sure my post did not imply all Mexicans. :good:

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                                  • #124621
                                    Andrew
                                    Participant

                                      A big part of the problem here though is us. We have a culture that has pretty much glorified drug use and the whole drug scene since the 60’s. It’s not any huge wonder that our dirt poor neighbors are more than willing to take advantage of the situation as well as expand their markets world wide.

                                      That and the “drug war” has been perverted into a means for alphabet agencies to get more money from the taxpayers to fight it.

                                      There are many aspects to the problem. It’s not just the cartels when you get honest about it.

                                      • #124623
                                        AntMan
                                        Participant

                                          It’s not just Mexico that has been affected by that. There are stories from people who served in Colombia talking about how they would be burning coke fields and then on certain fields the order would come down on how for them to be left alone.

                                          2xcqbc
                                          1xclc

                                      • #124940
                                        Anonymous
                                        Inactive

                                          Really interesting read, great find Max.

                                          I do think there is an impetus for the cartels to avoid direct confrontation with the US, too much money to be made to shake things up and risk a border incursion by the US military that cuts off smuggling lines.

                                          Anybody here know more about any previous surges of migration across the border during previous periods of Mexican instability?

                                          Trying to establish a safe zone on Mexican territory would be a military and political nightmare. Really we need to reform our drug laws to cut off the flow of revenue to the cartels.

                                          As to inside Mexico itself, the only islands of stability I’ve heard of have been areas like Chiapas where the indigenous people have established de facto autonomy. After the end of the Chiapas conflict the Mexican government has taken a hands-off approach to native areas, Zapatista or not, that have set up their own administrations since Mexican law permits native people to set up local governments. Unfortunately for others it doesnt apply for the rest of Mexico. So far they’ve kept the cartels out of their areas.

                                          I have heard of discontent in Zapatista areas, they did also establish new autonomous zones recently, I’d have to do more research to know exactly what the situation is rn tbh, anarchist media usually keeps good taps on the Chiapas situation.

                                          I was really hoping the Autodefensas would do some good but they didn’t really have much of a plan besides “Fight the cartels” so some got absorbed by the state and became corrupt cops, others realized the power they had and became cartels themselves. There have also been cartels that have established fake autodefensas to fight rival cartels. Lack of a coherent ideology and poor leadership seems to be an issue for the autodefensas.

                                          There was a pretty good documentary called Cartel Land about some of this stuff a while back. 1994 is another one that goes into some of the Zapatista stuff.

                                          • #124958
                                            hellokitty
                                            Participant

                                              Changing drug laws will not cut off revenues to Cartels. This isnt like prohibition. American companies are not going to start manufacturing and distributing meth or cocaine, etc. Whether you legalize drugs does not change the supply and demand. That will stay the same. And the Cartels will kill and die to keep the monopoly on supply. The Americans people will always provide the demand. The Cartels are even now getting involved in the marijuana supply chain in states that have legalized. If there is money to be made with drugs, the Cartels will be involved.

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                                          • #124963
                                            Anonymous
                                            Inactive

                                              Changing drug laws will not cut off revenues to Cartels. This isnt like prohibition. American companies are not going to start manufacturing and distributing meth or cocaine, etc. Whether you legalize drugs does not change the supply and demand. That will stay the same. And the Cartels will kill and die to keep the monopoly on supply. The Americans people will always provide the demand. The Cartels are even now getting involved in the marijuana supply chain in states that have legalized. If there is money to be made with drugs, the Cartels will be involved.

                                              It’s already legal to produce cocaine and heroin for legal use (ex: the UK is the largest exporter of legal cocaine), amphetamines are even less regulated – remember that crystal meth isn’t much different than Adderall. The difference between tramadol, heroin, and fentanyl is just a matter of severity.

                                              It’s illegal to transport cannabis across state lines where it’s illegal, so now there’s money in moving high-quality legal weed into the black market to states where it’s illegal, it’s actually partially displaced cheap Mexican weed. In states where recreational weed is legal the liberals who wrote the laws also implemented very high taxes (all puns intended), so there’s still a black market for untaxed weed, same as untaxed cigarettes in places like NYC. Make it legal nationwide and make the tax rate reasonable and it’ll only be as profitable as moonshine, e.g., not that profitable at all.

                                              There’s also solid evidence that cannabis legalization leads to decreases in opiod abuse rates – treating chronic pain with weed is less risky than treating it with percocet or oxycodone, which is what kicked off our current opiod crisis. Less people getting addicted to opiod painkillers = less revenue for cartels.

                                              Not that psychedelics are profitable enough for cartels to invest in that game, but some have shown promise for treating alcohol and narcotics addictions. Really wish ibogaine was descheduled because that has a real knack for completely crushing opiod addiction, that attribute was literally discovered by two heroin addicts who were looking for a new high and had a really rough trip.

                                              There’s also a affiliation effect that legalization interrupts – drug dealer might also sell other, harder products that a user might wind up buying, but a dispensary isn’t going to offer Xanax bars any time soon.

                                              The point isn’t that we can make them go completely bankrupt, but cut off enough revenue they cease to be a state-destabilizing security threat. There will still be markets for illegal guns, human trafficking, etc., but drug reform is a way to cut their profits and their ability to arm, organize, and bribe as effectively as they have. The Italian Mafia still exists post-Prohibition but the hustles they run are small enough that they lack the money and influence to raise Hell they once had. I’m not fond of my local methadone clinic, but if it cuts off cartel revenue I’d even consider safe injection sites.

                                              Hope that doesn’t count as “one of Rampant’s long forum posts”, sorry for the thread drift. ;-)

                                              • #125021
                                                hellokitty
                                                Participant

                                                  I disagree with everything you just posted. But have had it dude.

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                                              • #124986
                                                DiznNC
                                                Participant

                                                  Just another sign of the times. Great empires rise, and fall; I don’t think there’s anything to be gained by trying to explain it, blame it, or roll it back. All you can really do is try and control the little area around you. In this, we have been very fortunate to have had a 2d amendment, which at least let us stock up on some things before things go south. The poor bastards stuck in these shit hole countries don’t have much in the way of that.

                                                  On targeting gov’t troops, police, etc. I have long thought this is going to have to be the end-game, where anyone working for the .gov will have to live in armed enclaves, to keep their families safe. Military bases come to mind. I’m sure all those worthless bureaucrats have or will build additional facilities for “continuity of government”. While the Civil Defense program, to protect you and me, has been abandoned.

                                                  On cartels. You can’t go after heavily armed assholes with zero conscience and expect no blow-back. Every time I watch some TV show where the heroes are going after some evil organization, and then returning home to their little house in the burbs, I thought to myself, this is fucking nuts. Wife out working, kids in public schools, zero security. Are you fucking kidding me. What would you expect?

                                                  This is but another really good reason to form your own little group, and have some kind of ability to provide your own security. No one else is going to do it. Our government has proven incapable of protecting us. Much less any of our neighbors. Tweaking public policy isn’t going to change anything. We are way past that. Time to prepare for hard times. At a local level. That’s all that matters anymore.

                                                • #125026
                                                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                  Moderator

                                                    In reality the major cartels are involved in everything in Mexico!

                                                    U.S. Companies with inerests, these include both sales in Mexico to manufacturing for export elsewhere. So remember those U.S. Companies have to deal the various cartels. This involvement corrupts our policies dealing with the cartels.

                                                    Any major effort to deal with cartels would go against these companies and their paid corrupt politicians here in the U.S.

                                                    There are of course lesser Local and State corrupt officials that are paid assets to these cartels.

                                                    The Mexican government in many ways is the lesser component to the cartel managed Government. The real purpose of the Mexican government has become to manage the unprofitable portions of government administration.

                                                    Eliminating drug laws will not dramatically change cartel involvement. It would save much money the U.S. wastes in a futile effort to wage the war on drugs.

                                                    I support legalization of all drugs, from marijuana to antibiotics and everything in between. It isn’t the governments job to regulate what people choose to use. Thirty years ago this may have had a impact on eliminating criminal involvement in drugs; both legal and illegal, but today cartels are too diversified.

                                                    Until we eliminate corruption within the U.S. there is no hope of battling global corruption that effects our interests.

                                                    I do not believe we have any possibility to eliminate widespread U.S. corruption within the existing system. The remaining good and relatively honest people would have initiate such action through a complete system reset.

                                                    This will never happen as a singular event, maybe as part of a reconstruction due to another event, but even this is highly improbable.

                                                    The question Max originally asked, what role; if any, would a Mexican collapse effect us.

                                                    Again I believe it’s too early to guess, but it will at least increase our spending which will increase our own economic collapse. The only way we avoid a economic collapse is due to another black swan event hitting beforehand.

                                                    The numbers don’t lie and eventually pretending it’s “alright” won’t be enough.

                                                    So my advice is don’t get too wrapped up worrying about these distractions.

                                                  • #125038
                                                    Anonymous
                                                    Inactive

                                                      Back to the topic, did a quick Google search, here’s some info on Mexican immigration to the US in the last two centuries:

                                                      https://blogs.loc.gov/kluge/2015/03/the-history-of-mexican-immigration-to-the-u-s-in-the-early-20th-century/

                                                      All this being said it’s worth noting that the current migration is being driven by folks from El Salvador and Honduras where governmental authority has already effectively collapsed, as I’m sure most of you are already aware.

                                                    • #125049
                                                      Andrew
                                                      Participant

                                                        Article on the history of immigration from Mexico is okay as far as it goes. But, they left out the Bracero Program, where they could come and work and then return.

                                                        Ceasar Chavez (that icon of the Left) hated illegals because they disrupted his efforts to unionize the field workers. He had folks actually go out and beat the illegals up.

                                                        There was a spike in “refugees” in the early 80’s, when I was in the Border Patrol, coming from the civil wars in El Salvador and Guatemala. A whole different genre than your basic Mexicans who came here to work.

                                                        But, then even that has changed. Too many are here for the handouts and for criminal purposes from both Mexico and Central America.

                                                        Many of the Mexicans will assimilate after a generation or two, but I’m not real sure about the Central Americans.

                                                        Mexican-Americans (citizens that I worked with both in the BP and Customs) were some of the best Americans you could hope for. Hard workers and there if you needed them. Some of them were also harder on the illegals (from wherever) than any Anglo would ever have been.

                                                      • #125050
                                                        Andrew
                                                        Participant

                                                          Addendum: If things go kinetic in Mexico expect hordes of people to come across. I would also expect lots of tearful reporters on the border, lots of hot air in the halls of Congress and probably some protests in the streets, especially in California.

                                                          I’m not altogether sure that this won’t turn into some form of reconquista type event eventually.

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