Moved: Reply To: IED attack in NYC "Could this be backlash for current events in Syria? "
September 18, 2016 at 11:09 am #78241JustARandomGuyParticipant
Could this be backlash for current events in Syria?
We seem to have accidentally[ish?] bombed a FSA position, allegedly ISIS/Daesh is/has capitalized on that, and apparently there was a bit of a scene elsewhere in same country where US SF persons leaving (or fleeing, it’s kind of up for grabs) an area after being threatened were chanted and hollered out by our local moderate friends…
Current gibberish on news seems to say we may be persona non grata in that country soon.
Hopefully some intel people can shed some light on this, as the MSM doesn’t seem to be covering these events, and I’m sure RT isn’t exactly un0-biased….
Targeting a Marine run, and the aloha snackbarist at the mall seems pretty damn obvious to the motive…
But, it doesn’t seem like there’s anything all that important to “commemorate” on these dates, so aside from “muslims gonna be muslims”, not sure what else could be triggering these attacks aside from the above.
September 18, 2016 at 2:54 pm #78242AnonymousInactive
JustARandomGuy, you’ve kinda gotten current events mixed up. The US just accidentally (or “accidentally”) bombed SAA (Syrian Arab Army) positions killing a bunch of dudes, those are regime troops, not opposition fighters, so the events in Minnesota and New York would be unrelated.
The Free Syrian Army guys chasing out US SOF in Syria is a separate issue. In that case, it was the Islamist militias opposed to the SAA and backed by Turkey that we banged heads with. US SOF dudes entered Syria from Turkey to advise and assist the Turks and their FSA allies on the ground, the FSA threatened to kill them and it looks like they were escorted back to Turkey by the Turkish Army.
Two videos are in the link, only one is subtitled, but the general jist is death to America, we’ll cut their heads off, we’re Muslims, we don’t fight with the kuffar, we won’t work with Christians and crusaders, aloha snackbar, etc. Most US news reports on this have been totally ignoring this incident, only going so far as to say that Special Forces are on the ground in Syria to help the Turkish mission in Syria, and dodging the incident at al-Rai. Likewise a headline on CNN.com was “US, Iraqi troops close in on last ISIS-held city”, as if Raqqa wasn’t still alive and well in Syria. I’m starting to wonder if the US will just claim victory when IS as a conventional forces is defeated in Iraq and then say that Islamic State is contained in Syria, declare victory, and withdraw from the region, leaving what allies we do have in Syria (the Kurds and their Arab and Assyrian allies) to their fate.
Basically the best way to summarize the Turkish intervention in Syria is that Erdogan’s AKP is Muslim Brotherhood-lite, he’s an Islamist, the Turks hate the Kurds and so use fellow Islamists to attack the Kurds in Syria. Officially they back Islamist FSA brigades not recognized as terrorists by the western countries, unofficially there’s been cooperation between Turkey, Jabhat al-Nusra and Islamic State, the latter two who are at odds with one another. Since the Turks can no longer use Islamic State as a proxy against the Kurds, now the Turks are invading Syria (starting at Jarablus and moving south/southwest) in the name of fighting IS but really it’s to check the advance of the Kurdish YPG, which was attempting to unite their cantons into a contiguous political unit. (Kobane and Jazira are connected, Afrin is effectively an exclave surrounded by hostile forces.)
Most of the militias Turkey is backing are Islamists/jihadists, the FSA battalions in northern Syria are mostly aligned with Jabhat al-Nusra (now officially Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and no longer an al-Qaeda affiliate, though that’s really just at face value to become eligible for more funding by the Qataris and whatnot) and Ahrar al-Sham (the largest radical Islamist brigade in Syria after ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra). The Nourreddine al-Zenki Brigade in particular was in the news not too long ago for capturing a 13-year old Palestinian boy fighting for a pro-Assad militia, cutting off his head in the back of a Hilux with a combat knife, and posting it to the Internet. Ahrar al-Sham is a close ally of Jabhat al-Nusra and the largest Islamist militia in Syria not recognized as a terrorist organization, while not officially backed by Turkey there have been reports of those guys popping up in Jarablus after the FSA/Turkish intervention as well.
Really the Free Syrian Army hasn’t existed as a contiguous unit for a number of years now. At first it was a loose coalition of various opposition brigades, both secular and Islamist, as the war dragged on the Islamist brigades got all the money, weapons, and funding through our “allies” in the Middle East like Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The secular brigades were ravaged by fighting the regime, other (Islamist) opposition brigades, a lack of supplies and defections to better equipped Islamist brigades, and eventually the Islamists came out on top, though at the cost of a unified Syrian opposition. (A few of the remaining secular brigades that the US had backed joined the YPG-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, but not many.) When you hear “FSA”, that doesn’t mean shit nowadays.
For clarity this advise and assist mission with the Turks on the west side of the Euphrates is separate from the one with the Kurdish YPG and their multiethnic SDF allies on the east side, that’s gone off without a hitch for the past year, at least until the US encouraged the YPG to cross the Euphrates, spend a couple hundred soldiers taking Manbij from Islamic State and then told them they need to go back to the other side of the river and surrender the city to the Turks and the FSA.
As an addendum that might apply to some of us in a post-SHTF situation, whereas the FSA units all sought to immediately fight the regime at the outbreak of the civil war, the YPG’s first priority was to establish local governance and local security and fill in the power vacuum while the regime was distracted elsewhere. The regime and the PYD (the YPG’s political arm) basically agreed to it wasn’t worth fighting at the moment, which gave the PYD time to establish governance and security (while the SAA was distracted further south) long enough to ensure the regime couldn’t take back the area later.
It’s a clusterfuck, and it’s probably kinda pathetic that I understand all this mess, I hope that explainer isn’t too long/confusing.
September 18, 2016 at 3:39 pm #78243CorvetteParticipant
I would venture, much more than MIGHT. And this ties into Rules of Engagement. And the distinction between publicly stated (Feel-Good & Noble) ROE, and How the bear “Really” shits in the woods.
As an addendum that might apply to some of us in a post-SHTF situation, whereas the FSA units all sought to immediately fight the regime at the outbreak of the civil war, the YPG’s first priority was to establish local governance and local security and fill in the power vacuum while the regime was distracted elsewhere.
September 18, 2016 at 10:51 pm #78244RowlandParticipant
This was also the closing of Eid al Adrah. It’s the celebration of Ibrahim almost sacrificing Ishmael. At least that’s what they believe. Christians and Jews believe Abraham almost sacrificed Isaac. Anyway, Muslim holy day is always a “good time” to get your virgins. In Islam you get extra bonus points for killing on certain days. I’m guessing it’s an out reach from that more so than Syria.
September 18, 2016 at 11:28 pm #78245JustARandomGuyParticipant
Raptor, thanks for laying that out.
I’ve got an “overall” familiarity with the situation as I do try to keep up with it, Turkey’s reasons for getting involved, etc, but there’s just to damn many players changing sides and names every other day to keep track of….
So.. yeah, got some unmixing to do.
September 19, 2016 at 5:41 am #78246AnonymousInactive
I tried to keep the takedown of the situation simple as possible, it’s really quite hard to follow and it’s a complete clusterfuck over there right now so yeah. I only have a few friends I talk to about international politics that can keep up with even half of it, honestly. I have no qualms about giving a breakdown of the situation over there as best I can if anyone else needs an explainer, trying to figure out Mideast politics if you’re new to it is like trying to figure out what the Lord of the Rings is about when you’re starting with the last movie lol.
I wouldn’t expect the situation to get any better any time soon, either, it seems like the ceasefire in Syria is already beginning to fall apart.
Didn’t notice it was Eid al-Adha, good point to add, I don’t really keep too many tabs on the Islamic holidays outside of Ramadan, and the latter only because I see it in the news I read when it comes around. Last Ramadan I was getting advertisements for Dish TV Arabic (“Just in time for Ramadan!”) on my Facebook feed as suggested ads, probably not the greatest thing in the world to have Facebook’s metadata suggesting I buy Arabic channels. I recall hearing that it was Eid-something, couldn’t remember what though.
September 19, 2016 at 11:36 am #78247RowlandParticipant
I guess there’s also a UN summit starting today in NYC. Could throw some confusion into the process.
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