Many misconceptions regarding a Socialist Insurgency.

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    • #96680
      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
      Moderator

        Baring a amplifying “Black Swan Event” economic collapse, pandemic, etc…our current situation is quite different from what many were planning on “Pre-President Trump.”

        Currently we are not looking at a Government crackdown on us, as we may have been had HRC won. Barring a dramatic change in policy; despite Socialist propaganda to the contrary, we are not looking at battling a Fascist Government.

        We are potentially looking at a escalation of violence by Socialist Radicals.

        This could take many forms to include general rioting, bombings (from buildings to roadside), assassinations, targeting of vocal opponents and their families, and other basic terrorist activities.

        One of the goals will be to get Government to overreact and piss us off, possibly by limiting our Freedoms.

        Even if all of the above were taking place, you will still be paying bills, going to work, and all of your normal day to day activities. Yes you could find yourself defending against such attacks, but you will not be independently waging War against them.

        If things got bad enough, some smaller areas could see Posses or Defense Forces.

        For the most part life will remain as it is now.

        You could even be working with someone who is part of this insurgency from Auxiliary to active Terrorists.

        How likely this possible insurgency may actually happen is yet to be seen.

        How many of us are in a position to bug out to a retreat in such a situation?

      • #96681
        Thomas
        Participant

          Joe,

          I do not think there is any bugging out in a phase 1/phase 2 situation. Bills still have to be paid and life has to go on. The Panthers ran an excellent insurgency in Chicago in the 1970’s when they ran their ambulance service and denied the city ambulances access to black neighborhoods. As mentioned in the Time article in the other post, bombings were a part of life. For that matter, left violence was just another bank robbery or police killing. People still went to work and lived life.

          I am not sure that bugging out in a phase 3 conflict would be possible. Were we to go to full conflict, the conflict is currently more likely to be civil war than foreign invasion. While this would have different set of boundaries than the first civil war, there is some possibility that conflict areas would be controlled by various factions and groups rather than a declared state such as was the Confederacy. This will be more about conflicting ideologies and less defined by territorial dispute. That type of conflict makes bugging out more difficult.

          The willingness of the left to get violent across the nation shapes the landscape more than the regional conflicts of the past. Again, a battle of ideologies where the left collects in cities makes freedom of movement different and changes patterns of behavior.

        • #96682
          Joe (G.W.N.S.)
          Moderator

            People still went to work and lived life.

            This is the big point, there isn’t much thought to how such a situation will progress by most.

            Just because there is a active insurgency; even if on a fairly large scale, life would be relatively normal unless caught in a attack. Even with gunfire and explosions in the distance on occasion.

            Other than possible defensive action, we for the most part would be out of the fight. Sneaking around attempting to get involved would risk being targeted by Government Forces. How would they know difference?

            So the variety and complexity of our preparations need to consider such a situation.

            Unless retired or financially secure there will be no bug out.

            For most there will be no situations as depicted in so many Novels.

            Does that mean we don’t need to train and prepare as we have?

            Of course not! Our training and preparations need to be increased if anything, but we need to be flexible.

            We need to take seriously the possible threats and get away from these biased opinions of the left. It doesn’t take much dedicated training for a insurgent force to become capable.

            This is particularly evident with this ridiculous notion that one needs extensive firearms background to make a good fighter.

            Proficiency in firearms is maybe 10% of the needed skills.

            I can’t tell you how many outstanding SOF types have no more interest in firearms than a carpenter has in his hammer. If anything they are athletic team players and not gun nuts!

            Consider the various ARIS case studies regarding insurgencies, few of the successes had any prior firearms skills.

          • #96683
            hellokitty
            Participant

              Joe quote “If things got bad enough, some smaller areas could see Posses or Defense Forces.”

              We can look at other countries that went thru this. When the govt failed to protect the citizens, the citizens formed para military groups. Sometimes funded and supplied by the govt to fight these socialist groups. Historically this is when things have gone south and assassinations, summary executions are common. Just about every South American country has seen this happen. Northern Ireland. Africa. Former Yugoslavia.

              We are not special. It can happen here.

              HEAT 1(CTT) X 3
              HEAT 2 (CP) X1
              FOF X3
              OPFOR X2
              CLC X2
              RIFLEMAN

            • #96684
              M1-Guy
              Participant

                GWNS, thanks for starting this thread. At the present time this is a very important thread.

                Events are not unfolding as many of us would’ve thought. The leftists are confrontational and appear to be arming up. Many of us on the right (I do not believe the folks here) are snoozing, thinking, “Trump will fix it”. As we are seeing, the left (with complacent republicans and establishment types) is and has been worked hard to entrench themselves in the gov’t and create significant obstacles to Trump accomplishing his agenda.

                As noted above life will go on, bills will need to be paid, events will occur here and there (mostly in urban areas I believe) and we will continuously be faced with trying to determine friend from foe at your local level. In addition, I believe the most active areas will be urban and least active rural.

                Take the time to reread the comments above. The format of the game has changed materially and we need to get our head around it. The leftists are organized and funded. I have added myself to the OFA email list and get organizing, motivational, fund raising stuff, protest dates and locations from them every day. What is our side doing? What can we do?

              • #96685
                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                Moderator

                  Something for our LEO members to consider.

                  How difficult is it to imagine Illegal Aliens attacking efforts to arrest and deport them?

                  Is it unrealistic to think groups such as MS13 might try ambushing a ICE raid? Possibly providing the information on the whereabouts of a high profile individual to facilitate such action.

                  How safe are these LEO’s families in the event of such attacks?

                  For many of these groups this is a SHTF situation. Consider the Propaganda Machines reporting of these as yet hypothetical events. Most of the Socialists would support such actions, considering it self-defense.

                  For the rest of us do you have neighbors on either side of this that these potential attacks could put you in the crossfire?

                • #96686
                  JohnnyMac
                  Participant

                    One of the goals will be to get Government to overreact and piss us off, possibly by limiting our Freedoms.

                    Even if all of the above were taking place, you will still be paying bills, going to work, and all of your normal day to day activities. Yes you could find yourself defending against such attacks, but you will not be independently waging War against them.

                    Government overaction with significant public outrage is what has usually been referred to as a powder keg event in the history classes I’ve taken. It’s a roll of the dice how things devolve (or fizzle) from there.

                    Two, you’re spot on with most people just trying to go about their daily lives- even in the face of combat conditions. A local Syrian immigrant was recently featured in the newspaper for the great public charity she has been doing and her fear of being deported. She shared her story with the newspaper, where her background was as a college professor. She continued to commute by bus to work, even when her commute turned into a 4 hour bus ride because of frequent roadblocks set up by both government and rebel forces. She kept going until the university was emergency evacuated. I think the two lessons are 1) people will continue with their daily lives in an effort to not face current reality and 2) when you believe your options are limited you don’t feel empowered to change.

                    http://www.mcall.com/news/local/mc-syria-extended-visas-20170211-story.html

                  • #96687
                    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                    Moderator

                      …you’re spot on with most people just trying to go about their daily lives- even in the face of combat conditions.

                      This mentality is certainly there, but there is more too it than that.

                      I think the two lessons are 1) people will continue with their daily lives in an effort to not face current reality and 2) when you believe your options are limited you don’t feel empowered to change.

                      Even those who would like to intervene; beyond joining military or becoming a LEO, if the various Security Forces (regardless of makeup) are conducting Counter Insurgency operations there is no room for freelance intervention beyond defensive measures.

                      Attempting to conduct your own operations will lead to accidental and deliberate measures against you by Security Forces.

                      Without some form of coordination and legal cover in the form of a Posse or Defense Force member while there is a functional legitimate Government presence would be foolish.

                      A possible exception would be illegitimate actions by rogue Government such as active support of insurgents by Sanctuary Cities, States, or say a Rogue Sheriff. Basically the “Reverse of Patriot Dawn” scenario!

                    • #96688
                      JohnnyMac
                      Participant

                        @Joe

                        Your second point brings up the question that has not been (in my humble opinion) really successfully answered yet:

                          in today’s asymmetrical wars, who is a combatant and what protections are they afforded

                        Right now I won’t sacrifice the time to read textbooks, but I can read summaries of textbooks haha. http://www.e-ir.info/2011/07/05/review-moral-dilemmas-of-modern-war/

                      • #96689
                        Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                        Moderator

                          …in today’s asymmetrical wars, who is a combatant and what protections are they afforded

                          In my above link regarding ARIS, a recently released study “The Legal Status of Personnel in Resistance” addresses some of this.

                          However, it can be understood that as long as we have a functioning Government (in this case one we support), we cannot conduct offensive operations without support and authorization of legitimate Government.

                          This does not prevent legitimate self-defense, but such self-defense would be subject to the same Judicial review that such action is subject to right now.

                        • #96690
                          Brian from Georgia
                          Participant

                            This ain’t nothing like the 60s – yet. This is a long read but well worth it.

                            Days of Rage

                            I agree with the author’s premise: national divorce may be the only way to avoid the impending civil war.

                          • #96691
                            JohnnyMac
                            Participant

                              Brian, a very entertaining read- I hope it had its facts straight. There’s just too much for me to try to fact check. As a younger guy, all of that 60’s and 70’s history I had no clue about. I think the author’s look at the situation today seems more realistic than what a lot of people espouse.

                              Excuse my ignorance, but what does national divorce mean?

                            • #96692
                              JeffSags
                              Participant

                                Secession

                              • #96693
                                The Prof
                                Participant

                                  Excellent and penetrating thread.

                                  I talked a few years ago with a friend of mine who was a Marine Lt. Col. with access to a lot of classified documents because of his assignments. He opined that civil war was what we were heading for. I wondered out loud what that would look like, given that the divide now is more urban/rural than region vs. region.

                                  He replied, “Don’t think American Civil War. Think Spanish Civil War. That’s what it will be like.”

                                  I think he was onto something (and that’s chilling, because the Spanish Civil War was exceptionally nasty).

                                • #96694
                                  Corvette
                                  Participant

                                    He replied, “Don’t think American Civil War. Think Spanish Civil War. That’s what it will be like.”

                                    I think he was onto something (and that’s chilling, because the Spanish Civil War was exceptionally nasty).

                                    “For Whom the Bell Tolls” A great read. A true masterpiece, a Timeless Classic.

                                  • #96695
                                    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                    Moderator

                                      This ain’t nothing like the 60s – yet.

                                      As noted, nothing new here just the continuation of a long standing goal.

                                      Consider this video:

                                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWMIwziGrAQ

                                      Here is the entire documentary “No Place to Hide” from 1982 where above excerpt originates.

                                    • #96696
                                      Brian from Georgia
                                      Participant

                                        Excuse my ignorance, but what does national divorce mean?

                                        Yes, secession as JeffSags mentioned. That could come in a lot of different flavors. CA, OR, MA and NYC leaving the union would be fine and dandy with me.

                                        It still isn’t that simple since, as mentioned above, it’s not regional but urban versus rural. Even in the “conservative” south and Midwest, we’ve had some of the worst BLM shootings and riots such as Dallas, Baton Rouge and Ferguson, NO.

                                        Perhaps if there was a peaceful split, factions would self-separate and head to their preferred new country. That would prevent a Yugoslavian or Spanish style civil war. I don’t hold out much hope for that, though.

                                      • #96697
                                        nonconformist
                                        Participant

                                          Brian said “national divorce”. Thankfully I’ve never experienced a divorce but I think that recognizing “irreconcilable differences” is important to both sides.
                                          Once you understand socialism and you are the type of person who is willing to go that extra mile, the mile that is reachable with free market capitalism,

                                        • #96698
                                          nonconformist
                                          Participant

                                            Brian said “national divorce”. Thankfully I’ve never experienced a divorce but I think that recognizing “irreconcilable differences” is important to both sides.
                                            Once you understand socialism and you are the type of person who is willing to go that extra mile, the mile that is reachable with free market capitalism, but ridiculed under socialism, the choice is easy.

                                            After watching parts of the Dem’s 2012 national convention, it was plain to this freedom lover that reconciliation was impossible. All that was left was to fight it out, in a Yugoslavian type war, or split it up.

                                            We need to be prepared for either.

                                          • #96699
                                            JohnnyMac
                                            Participant

                                              I’ve spent some time the last two days researching the 70’s socialist movement, Weatherman and the Spanish Civil War and, WOW! that is scary stuff.

                                              An interesting factoid I came across was George Orwell’s story of heading over to Spain for the civil war, being an anti-Stalinist Trotsky socialist and surviving a sniper shot to the neck- crazy!

                                            • #96700
                                              Brian from Georgia
                                              Participant

                                                I’ve spent some time the last two days researching the 70’s socialist movement, Weatherman and the Spanish Civil War and, WOW! that is scary stuff.

                                                Some other scary stuff was the so-called race riots in the 60s: Watts in ’65, and 1968 after MLK’s assassination. There was violence in 125 cities.

                                              • #96701
                                                Scott G
                                                Participant

                                                  I am catching up on my reading in the forum. I had been away from here for a while. This discussion of this thread seem relevant again with the more violent actions of ANTIFA recently. I am going to be reading some of the linked material over the next few days.

                                                  Somewhat separately something that jumped out at me from one of Joe’s post’s above:

                                                  “I can’t tell you how many outstanding SOF types have no more interest in firearms than a carpenter has in his hammer. If anything they are athletic team players and not gun nuts!”
                                                  I thought TACGUN!!!!!!!

                                                  I love all the information from so many perspectives on here!

                                                  SLG

                                                • #96702
                                                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                  Moderator

                                                    I can’t tell you how many outstanding SOF types have no more interest in firearms than a carpenter has in his hammer. If anything they are athletic team players and not gun nuts!

                                                    I thought TACGUN!!!!!!!

                                                    :good:

                                                  • #96703
                                                    Corvette
                                                    Participant

                                                      Regarding secession.

                                                      The States leaving the USA would not wait 3 months before they signed an alliance with China or Russia. Happens throughout history

                                                    • #96704
                                                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                                      Moderator

                                                        Regarding secession.

                                                        We won’t see a State succession, at least not without a major precipitating event that leaves Federal government in a position of impotence.

                                                      • #96705
                                                        ffhounddog
                                                        Participant

                                                          This is part why you need to have a conceal carry permit and why you need to carry. If you have the option to carry always carry. I have a spot where I can carry a Beretta Nano in my truck and its hard to see. I have two and I always at least carry my Beretta Nano. I know a lot of people do not like the Nano but carry what you can. I normally carry a Glock 19 or a P2000 but that is me. As long as you carry something with at least one reload you might be able to stop or at least disrupt a terror act.

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