Lessons Learned form Ukraine

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  • This topic has 14 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 3 years, 9 months ago by Max. This post has been viewed 67 times
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    • #96337
      First Sergeant
      Moderator

        Pretty interesting paper written by someone who spent time on the ground and interviewed participants.

        Pretty damning of the West and how we have ignored Ukraine and let them fend for themselves while paying lip service. Also sheds some light on what Russia is planning for and what the West is planning for are two different things when it comes to warfare.

        https://prodev2go.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/rus-ukr-lessons-draft.pdf

        FILO
        Signal Out, Can You Identify
        Je ne regrette rien
        In Orbe Terrum Non Visi

      • #96338
        Joe (G.W.N.S.)
        Moderator

          I downloaded it; looks interesting, will read it tomorrow.

        • #96339
          Thomas
          Participant

            I heard this gentleman speak recently. Thank you for linking the paper.

          • #96340
            jane
            Participant

              So UAVs will figure prominently in future conflicts. What is everyone here doing for their aerial capabilities in case of a collapse scenario? Do you have any? Do you train with it?

            • #96341
              Joe (G.W.N.S.)
              Moderator

                What is everyone here doing for their aerial capabilities in case of a collapse scenario?

                Here is a couple of links to some relevant data about drones.

                “Regular Guy” Drone Use in Security and Patrol Operations

                Note: The Hubsan H301S SPY HAWK is a little bit more in price at $350, but you get the following:

                This Item Includes: Hubsan H301S SPY HAWK 5.8GHz FPV 4-Channel RTF RC Airplane – Full HD 1920×1080 FPV Camera – FPV Transmitter – 1300Mah 7.4V Battery – Charger
                With High resolution camera (1920×1080)
                Flight time up to 30 minutes
                With automatic return function
                If the aircraft strays beyond radio range, the aircraft will autonomously return to the take-off location
                Live video distance:1000 meters

                For around $1800 you could replace current camera with an infrared one if you are tech savvy.

                Don’t neglect the Weather

                The above link has some detailed OSINT on weather effects on military drones.

                If you have detailed questions about those, I suggest commenting in the “Regular Guy” Drone Use in Security and Patrol Operations Thread.

              • #96342
                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                Moderator

                  I am not finished with my review, but here are some initial thoughts.

                  This mirror imaging is misleading and “it is a conceptual mistake to try to fit Russian New Generation Warfare … on Western concepts.”

                  I’ve seen this as a reoccurring theme over the years, it is far too easy to use Western concepts in place of the Opponents. The rose colored glasses syndrome.

                  Thus, the commentary presented here should be taken more as a set of informed hypotheses rather than definitive conclusions.

                  This deserves more attention to avoid thinking in absolutes.

                  Data from the Ukraine conflict show that artillery is producing approximately 85% of all casualties on both sides.

                  For example, at Zelenopillya, in a combined MLRS fire strike that lasted no more than three minutes, two Ukrainian mechanized battalions were virtually wiped out with the combined effects of top-attack munitions and thermobaric warheads.

                  In interviews with the author, numerous Ukrainian anti-­tank missiles and anti-­tank gun operators have noted their reticence in opening fire against Russian armor because of the expectation that they themselves will immediately be targeted by the Gvozdika.

                  However, the consequence of dismounting infantry in prepared positions is that the defense sacrifices its mobility. Once defense position is penetrated, the defender is in danger of either overrun or being bypassed with its rear area overrun by deep armored advance.

                  Some of this should be familiar to those that have read Patriot Rising, Max did an excellent job of demonstrating possible solutions to counter these concerns.

                  I will look into what type of bunker/field position can deal with thermobaric weapons, off the top of my head it seems obvious a direct hit and your toast, but I am unsure of it’s effects for a given distance from point of impact.

                • #96343
                  Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                  Moderator

                    Russian TOS-1 Thermobaric MLRS

                    A Buratino can obliterate a roughly 200m by 400m area with a single salvo. In other words, it can instantly turn several city blocks into smoldering rubble with a single shot. That’s because unlike with conventional explosives that incorporate their own oxidizers, thermobaric explosive rely on the atmosphere to provide them with oxygen. Basically, the warhead releases a cloud of chemicals—such as tetranite—which mixes with the air before it explodes. The resultant explosion—which is usually much larger than an equivalent weight of conventional ordnance—creates a massive high temperature blast and a high-pressure shock wave.

                    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykooDQ6Sby4

                    Therefore, a thermobaric strike on a unit in an urban fight is likely to be very bloody. Those personnel caught directly under the aerosol cloud will die from the flame or overpressure. For those on the periphery of the strike, the injuries can be severe. Burns, broken bones, contusions from flying debris and blindness may result. Further, the crushing injuries from the overpressure can create air embolism within blood vessels, concussions, multiple internal hemorrhages in the liver and spleen, collapsed lungs, rupture of the eardrums and displacement of the eyes from their sockets. Displacement and tearing of internal organs can lead to peritonitus. Most military medics are well trained in stopping the bleeding, protecting the wound and treating for shock. Many of the injuries caused by thermobaric weapons are internal and may not be initially noticed by the medic or doctor.

                    The standard OSINT Force Protection manuals do not provide guidance for bunker/field position in regards to thermobaric weapons.

                    Based on thermobaric weapons having twice the power of conventional HE, it would seem one would have to double at a minimum the standard configuration with an emphasis on angled bast defectors at entrances.

                    Let’s try to not get fixed by such firepower! :yes:

                  • #96344
                    Andrew
                    Participant

                      Russian TOS-1

                      Therefore, a thermobaric strike on a unit in an urban fight is likely to be very bloody. Those personnel caught directly under the aerosol cloud will die from the flame or overpressure. For those on the periphery of the strike, the injuries can be severe. Burns, broken bones, contusions from flying debris and blindness may result. Further, the crushing injuries from the overpressure can create air embolism within blood vessels, concussions, multiple internal hemorrhages in the liver and spleen, collapsed lungs, rupture of the eardrums and displacement of the eyes from their sockets. Displacement and tearing of internal organs can lead to peritonitus. Most military medics are well trained in stopping the bleeding, protecting the wound and treating for shock. Many of the injuries caused by thermobaric weapons are internal and may not be initially noticed by the medic or doctor.

                      The standard OSINT Force Protection manuals do not provide guidance for bunker/field position in regards to thermobaric weapons.

                      Based on thermobaric weapons having twice the power of conventional HE, it would seem one would have to double at a minimum the standard configuration with an emphasis on angled bast defectors at entrances.

                      Let’s try to not get fixed by such firepower! :yes:

                      Some of the injuries mentioned, even if noticed by a medic or doctor, cannot be treated outside of a hospital setting. There is no realistic way to treat internal injuries in the field.

                      As related to getting fixed by such firepower, about the only way to deal with something like that, imo, is through sabatoge, or strikes while they are in lager, if you have a large enough force.

                    • #96345
                      Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                      Moderator

                        …is through sabotage…

                        If I was part of a resistance and had these operating in my AO they would certainly be a priority target for sabotage. It’s operating personnel, maintenance, fuel supply, munitions, and unless I had something better thermite for both launch tubes and vehicle.

                        I hope to never experience the receiving end of that kind of firepower.

                        …a combined MLRS fire strike that lasted no more than three minutes, two Ukrainian mechanized battalions were virtually wiped out with the combined effects of top-attack munitions and thermobaric warheads.

                        Think about that.

                      • #96346
                        First Sergeant
                        Moderator

                          Ever since I was a young Private in a LRS company, I have had a profound respect for MLRS.

                          The Soviets had units that their specific mission was to DF units like mine and others whose job was strategic reconnaissance. Part of the makeup of those units was MLRS capability. They only had to narrow your location to a grid square. 1,000 meters x 1,000 meters. They launched and whatever was in that grid square was toast.

                          So yeah, if those were in my AO, I would target everything that supported them. But especially the launchers.

                          Thermobaric warheads just make them that much more lethal.

                          FILO
                          Signal Out, Can You Identify
                          Je ne regrette rien
                          In Orbe Terrum Non Visi

                        • #96347
                          RRS
                          Participant

                            A lot of that report was saying what pays in the American Empire. FTR I support the independence and freedom for both sides of that conflict.

                            Now the military part of it was interesting, but you know what Max’s defense of Romney is pretty much what I would recommend if a small nation decided to fight for its independence.

                            Those two sides in this conflict have just enough weaponry to create chaos and destruction, the American military would be in Moscow or Kiev if it were the military of 1990-2003 combined arms juggernauts.

                          • #96348
                            Andrew
                            Participant

                              Being factious here. “IF” If a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his azz everytime he jumped and IF grasshoppers carried .45s, the birds wouldn’t phuck with them. :good:

                            • #96349
                              RRS
                              Participant

                                The Ukraine will lose, the Ruskies can depopulate their little area and still fight, this will bleed them dry, mainly of blood since they will receive enough aid to keep the Russians busy, too much aid will receive too much Russian attention.

                                So my advice to an average Uke, hang your “leaders.”

                              • #96350
                                tango
                                Participant

                                  Lots of good info here in the article and in contributing posts – making for good morning reading over coffee. Thanks to everyone for posting so far.

                                • #96351
                                  Max
                                  Keymaster

                                    Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                                    At this point the Russians are not looking to win just create havoc to keep the US hung up and to stay relevant in the neighborhood. If they wanted to take it….look at Crimea. They are hoping that the UA citizens throw out the new criminals…who are no different than the old criminals except that they get their support from Soros instead of Putin.

                                    Disclaimer, my inlaws live 300km from the “separatist” zone and while they are east leaning (as most in the east are) they think the rebels are none too bright.

                                    Anyone who has read anything on Soviet/Russian tactics should not be surprised in their massive use of artillery.

                                    And as Top mentioned the Russians have good Df’ing capability, as do we and Max wrote about.

                                    The use of wireless comms in a us vs .gov brouhaha would be risky at best unless you can transmit and scoot before they can DF you……I would not want to bet my life on that capability.

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