Ebola – What do you think about this?

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    • #82537
      Lloyd
      Participant

        This guy paints a pretty bleak worst case scenario picture, but you have to admit that it is very hard to imagine how ebola is NOT going to run its course through the entire world at this point. If the primary affected countries in Africa are not totally locked down and sealed off from the rest of the world, the disease WILL spread to other countries… which means that it WILL become a worldwide pandemic at some point.

        The only logical questions are: How soon it will be the house next door? How long will it all last? How will societies keep from falling apart at the seams when it happens? What will YOU do to live through it?

        What do y’all think? PLEASE read the entire article below before you comment.

        Thanks!

        http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2014/10/surfing-usa.html
        Saturday, October 11, 2014
        Surfing USA

        One fine sunny morning in California, the San Andres Fault finally rips loose, there’s an 8.5 earthquake, followed by a couple of 6.4 aftershocks just a few miles off the coast. Within minutes, the Santa Monica Pier is sitting 40 feet above the waterline, with a few fish flopping around on the glistening sand and kelp puddles that were in twenty to thirty feet of water just a few minutes earlier. Standing on the beach, you look offshore, and see a slight bulge in the waterline, not very high, but it seems to be moving fast inbound. It’s 200 yards to the parking lot, and there’s a downed streetlight sitting across the hood of your car anyways.
        So how do catch the incoming tsunami and ride it safely home?

        You and the family are enjoying a nice vacation to Hawaii at Volcano National Park. Your only son, ignoring repeated stern warnings, climbs up on top of the boundary fence near an open crater, and before your horror-stricken eyes, slips and tumbles into a pool of glowing red lava. How do you dive in and save him?

        You’re an hour out of Miami headed for London, the plane is humming along, the co-pilot’s doing everything like a pro, you’re at 35,000′ in clear skies, when suddenly there’s a loud thump, all the alarms and lights in the cockpit go off at once, and as you’re struggling to assess your problems and options, you can hear the fight attendant screaming through the cockpit door that apparently the tail and both wings, including all your engines, just fell off. How do you glide in for a landing?

        The answer to all three questions is the exact same:
        Don’t be there. Be someplace else, far, far away. Period.

        In comments to recent posts, several times, I’ve been asked to please tell folks what medical supplies to stock to care for family members if they become infected with Ebola. It’s a serious subject, a serious question, and to all appearances, asked by serious people. So let me give you a serious answer to “How do I care for family/friends with Ebola?”

        DON’T.

        “But Aesop, you don’t understand, I love my wife/husband/son/daughter/brother/sister/aunt/cousin/grandpa/parents/pet giraffe, and I HAVE to help them!”

        No problem.
        1) Make out your will.
        2) Do whatever you like. Don’t bother with PPE. Treat their symptoms.
        Result: They’re (90% odds) going to die, you’ll get infected, and then (90%) you’re going to die too. Scatter any others under the same roof in there randomly as individually appropriate.

        And there’s absolutely nothing you’re going to “stock up” on that will help, or change that reality.

        Let me break it down, so that it’s obvious I’m not just being a fatalistic dick about this.
        Working in an Ebola Treatment center requires meticulously donning an impervious coverall, gloves, booties, hood, high-efficiency bio-hazard mask or powered respirator, goggles, apron, and more gloves. It typically takes two attendants to dress one person, to make sure everything’s on right, tied closed, zipped up, and all the pieces in place, including places you can’t see, like in front of your face and behind your back.

        This all requires a clean, infection-free dressing area. Then they enter the patient treatment area through a door or doors that keep the infection locked in. The patient area needs to have everything the patient or caregiver needs stored within, because once you go in, you can’t come out until you’re decon’ed and all contaminated garments are removed.
        So you have to have all medical supplies there, plus a bathroom area for the patient(s), and all sealed off from any outside contact.

        Then you need another area to be decon’ed, and strip off the PPE, layer by layer, slowly and flawlessly, without contaminating yourself in the process, which requires more attendants to spray you with bleach solution, plus drains, disposal bins, showers, sinks, incinerators, etc.

        Then you need a means to incinerate the waste, and a handy supply of ever-fresh new disposable supplies, for every time you suit up, and a crew to decon the re-usable stuff, with flawless precision each and every time.

        And if you screw it up, you go into quarantine for 21 days. If you really screw it up, you move to the patient ward yourself, because you are one. To date nearly 400 healthcare workers in Africa have made that last transition, and most of them are dead now.

        The easiest thing to do in this outbreak is get Ebola and die, as over 4000 people could tell you now themselves, if we’d only reconstitute their charcoal incinerated atoms and resurrect them to chat with us.

        Setting up such a facility is such a royal PITA, most major hospitals don’t even attempt it for training without weeks of meetings and prep, and they usually screw it up royally even then, despite hordes of trained professionals, thoughtful planning, and budgets any of us would envy.

        So, what part of that could you reproduce, when failure = slow lingering death by liquification of your internal organs (while you’re still using them)?

        “But…but…IT”S MY WIFE!SON!BABY!MOTHER! I LOVE them!”

        Noted. Of course you do. So be a hero, dive into the lava pool, and see how far you get.
        After all, I could be wrong.

        But on the theory I’m not, realize this:
        Healthcare authorities yesterday threw in the towel with respect to Sierra Leone.
        All of Sierra Leone.
        They’re going to start distributing home healthcare supplies there.
        That stuff is going to enable family members to care for each other. And as a result, one infected family member will kill their fellow family members, with a 70-90% efficiency.
        The charities involved have come to the conclusion that Sierra Leone’s 5.7M people need to be cut loose, and they’ll give them what they need to do minimal comfort care for family members, for whom there are simply no beds, and the disease will run rampant until it runs out of people to kill there. Probably nearly all of them, unless someone has the means and supplies to stay inside unexposed until 5.2M of their friends and neighbors have died, and the virus runs out of hosts or growth media, like decaying corpses. To the tune, potentially, of about half the entire Nazi holocaust, in total size.

        The entire country has just been put on hospice, because we simply can’t catch this virus.
        It’ll take weeks to burn out, thousands, perhaps millions more will die, and the people running the medical relief groups know all this right now.

        What you can do:

        You aren’t going to be going out with a mask and such here if Ebola becomes more “than that one guy in Dallas”. If you’re riding on planes and busses with a mask on, you’re an idiot. In short order, you’ll be an infected idiot. And shortly after that, an ex-idiot. Don’t be that guy.

        You don’t need masks, gowns, gloves, etc.

        You need WATER. A source, not just a faucet. Barrels, bathtub, well, rain collection. Hell, pull your cars out of the garage, and put an above-ground pool up, and fill it with water.
        Get a water purification filter, unscented bleach, etc., to keep drinking water clean.

        You’ll need FOOD. Not 3 days, but more like 3 WEEKS, and more likely 3 MONTHS worth. Ebola started in March in Africa. By next May, as things look now and with no change, it will be well on the way to wiping those nations off the planet, with 70-90% efficiency. So, have you got a year’s food? Canned goods keep from 2-5 years. Dried/dehydrated for longer, but it’s a lot pricier.

        You’re going to need a way to cook food, stay warm in the winter, etc. So power/electricity/fire. More ways is better.

        If you have stored water, food, and means to purify/prepare both, you don’t need to go out into the contagion.
        You’re going to need basic medical/first aid supplies, because going to the hospital during that time for a cut or broken bone isn’t going to be an option.

        You’re going to need a way to be your own 911 – medical, fire, and police, because those folks may not be there to pick up when you call. Assuming calling is even an option at that point. Can you fix your own boo-boos? Put out a fire? Be your own cop? Get cracking.

        The likeliest decontamination supplies will rarely be bleach (mixed in water), and more often than not a gallon of unleaded and a road flare, for the bodies that drop too near, or don’t get picked up right away. If you think you want to gown up and play with them, drag them around, and/or give them a Christian burial, best wishes. We’ll all split your gear after you’re gone.
        If I have to deal with any bodies, they’re getting a Viking funeral, and an “Amen” by way of services.
        If they aren’t within throwing distance of a road flare from the property line, they’re not my problem, nor within my jurisdiction.

        If this outbreak gets contained where it is, great. Hallelujah.

        If it doesn’t, it isn’t something you’re going to get through.
        It’s going to change life as we know it, for years.
        You’re either going to totally avoid it, or it’s going to weed you and your family out of the gene pool permanently and painfully.

        And anybody who tells you anything different is either afraid to tell you the awful truth of that, woefully under-informed, or selling you a bill of goods. Or all of the above.

        The only way to take care of family members with Ebola is not to have to.

        The only possible exception is if you have a big enough tribe/family/group/whatever that you really do have a compound, buttloads of supplies, dedicated clinic space, and enough people to care for one or two persons who get infected (knowing that 50-90% of them will die anyway, and with the mental and physical preparation and means to deal with the disposal problem if that happens too). And if you’re that well-prepared, you don’t me to tell you how to handle things.

        Personally, I’m betting outside of publicly funded entities, the number of groups to whom that would apply could be counted on your thumbs.

        I hope anyone considering the future in the case that this becomes an epidemic here will recognize this as the definitive answer to this question, and not press for more. It simply doesn’t exist.

        I can’t tell you anything more, because there’s essentially no way to accomplish what some of you are thinking about, and it would be immoral and unethical for anyone to suggest otherwise. I certainly will not.

        The best way to prepare for this getting worse is not by going to the drug store.
        It’s by going to the supermarket.

        I understand what a rude shock that may be right now to a lot of folks.
        Imagine what it’s going to be like for people who don’t get the lightbulb-over-the-head moment until after it’s too late to get ready.

      • #82538
        JohnyMac
        Participant

          Maybe this is normalcy bias on my part however I am more worried about the economic fall-out of Ebola, D68, Tuberculosis and other nasties flying around now and into the traditional flu season then the nasties themselves.

          With that said, I do agree with the comments, “The best way to prepare for this getting worse is not by going to the drug store. It’s by going to the supermarket.”

          It is cheap insurance to keep to the task of – Beans, Band-aides and Bullets.

        • #82539
          Brian from Georgia
          Participant

            I’m not sure if it will get that bad, but the article makes me want to fill some holes in my stores. Just in case.

          • #82540
            Joe (G.W.N.S.)
            Moderator

              Well I will write a up a more detailed comment when I get more time. Of course just reading “F” comments in Recent Ebola Outbreak/Epidemic will address most of this.

              Since the author seems to go by Aesop, instead of Aesop’s Fables we have Aesop’s Fear-mongering!

              The Ebola situation like any threat needs to be monitored and prudent measures taken.

              How about a reality check!

              Here are some basic numbers of deaths Yearly for the World from various infectious threats. Ebola is as yet a minor threat.

              In 2012, 8.6 million people fell ill with TB and 1.3 million died from TB.

              In 2013, 1.5 (1.4–1.7) million people died from HIV-related causes globally.

              Pneumonia kills an estimated 1.1 million children
              under the age of five years every year – more than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis combined.

              More than 780 000 people die every year due to the consequences of hepatitis B.

              In 2012, Malaria caused an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000).

              Worldwide Influenza, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths.

              350 000 to 500 000 people die each year from hepatitis C-related liver diseases.

              There are an estimated 200 000 cases of yellow fever, causing 30 000 deaths, worldwide each year, with 90% occurring in Africa.

              In 2012, there were 122 000 measles deaths globally – about 330 deaths every day or 14 deaths every hour.

              There are an estimated 3–5 million cholera cases and 100 000–120 000 deaths due to cholera every year.

            • #82541
              Lloyd
              Participant

                G.W.N.S.,

                I agree 100% that the numbers, compared to diseases that have been with us a long time, don’t warrant a panic… yet. The difference, in my opinion, is partly the mortality rate with ebola, and partly the potential reaction of govt and population.

                Ebola is obviously more transmissible than CDC has been letting on. Compare the potential of ebola (with 50% plus mortality) to the reality of the 1918 flu (with something like 15% mortality). Potential to kill a bunch of people, but probably more importantly, potential to scramble the status quo of the world like nothing we have seen for the last 100 years or so. Panicked sheeple, panicked govts, forced quarantines, forced vaccinations, inability of the health care system to cope/adapt, etc.

                I agree 100% that it’s not time to panic about getting infected, which at this point is VERY unlikely. But with numbers of victims doubling every 3 weeks, it is time to think about what the world will be like a year or so from now, IF this disease advances to the point that every person who coughs or sneezes or pukes within 50 yards of you is a threat to your life and the lives of everyone you might come in contact with. The disease itself may affect a relatively small number of people, but if it doesn’t burn itself out, at some point society’s and govt’s REACTION to the disease will affect all of us.

              • #82542
                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                Moderator

                  Many of the Doomsayers remind me of the Weatherman talking about a potential big Hurricane with excitement in there eyes at the prospect, but more times than not they are disappointed when it doesn’t build.

                  …potential to scramble the status quo of the world like nothing we have seen for the last 100 years or so. Panicked sheeple, panicked govts, forced quarantines, forced vaccinations, inability of the health care system to cope/adapt, etc.

                  I am sorry, but there isn’t much substance to that scenario.

                  Time will tell.

                • #82543
                  Lloyd
                  Participant

                    Well, I actually hope you’re right and I’m full of shit.

                  • #82544
                    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                    Moderator

                      Well, I actually hope you’re right and I’m full of shit.

                      The truth is probably somewhere in between. :-)

                      First there is a tremendous amount misinformation out there, let’s really make an effort to verify information before taking it as gospel.

                      Currently there is little difference between the Tinfoil Hat sites and the rest of the sites (a few exceptions). This is of particular concern to me.

                      Anyone who is a Rationalist should be carefully monitoring events, if your AO has a confirmed Ebola case it is prudent to take some precautions, but carefully think it through.

                      Do not become part of the mindless herd.

                    • #82545
                      M1-Guy
                      Participant

                        GWNS’s numbers above tell the story. We must stay on guard and find facts amongst all the blather. People’s emotional reactions, however, cannot be quantified and that is the wild card.

                      • #82546
                        Bill G.
                        Participant

                          Apparently the CDC has ordered one person detained here in Maine at our largest hospital for possible symptoms. But thats all the info their giving out. Hopefully its a false alarm.

                        • #82547
                          Lloyd
                          Participant

                            Again, I am not worried about getting infected any time soon. I’m not buying N95 masks, or respirators, or tyvek suits. I’m not stringing tanglefoot around my house… The things that concern me are:

                            1) This bug is only a day’s plane ride away from the U.S.

                            2) It is transmissible enough that professionals in hazmat suits are getting infected – aerosol and droplet size particles, even if it’s not officially “airborne”.

                            3) In the long run, I do not see how it can be contained… Therefore, eventually it will become a fact of life in this country. 6 months from now? 2 years from now?

                            4) Assuming it does not mutate to become less lethal, WHEN it becomes a fact of life, it will kill at least half the people that get it. (Rate of infection of a given population is up in the air… 1% of those exposed? 5%? 20%? Nobody seems to know.)

                            If somebody can give me a reasonable idea why I am wrong about any of the stuff in bold above, or how this can be contained, short of total quarantine of affected areas, I’d love to hear it! Govt checking for fevers on plane flights seems like almost a complete waste of time since there is up to 3 week incubation period where people show no symptoms at all. If it is so “difficult to catch”, then why the hazmat suits (which don’t work 100% of the time), and why are they trying to trace all people who have interacted with victims and quarantine them for 21 days?

                            Again, I’m not screaming that the sky is falling, but I don’t think people would be smart to go to the other extreme and assume this is another bullshit H1N1 false alarm.

                          • #82548
                            Max
                            Keymaster

                              Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.

                              I have tried to stay out of this conversation as long as possible, but here’s the deal: Ebola is here. And its got a 50-70% mortality rate.

                              The bigger question is “what does that mean?” It means what GWNS says but also includes pieces of what the article listed above says. Personally, I believe our current methods of control are not working, which means it keeps spreading. Will it get “epidemic” in size and kill whole cities? Probably not. But how long before an infected guy gets on a train instead of going to the hospital? Or hops a bus out of town? There will be pockets of infection for sure. My quick advice: go ahead and buy some plastic sheeting, gloves, masks and other protective gear because of ALL infectious agents, not just ebola. It’s handy to have to isolate bad flu victims, measles, TB, and other bad bugs. Ebola is big on theatrics, the bleeding from the eyes and other symptoms, but all infections without proper care are nasty.

                              In a true “end of society” situation, all infections will be cause for quarantine and isolation because we won’t be able to treat them as effectively as we currently do. Perspective is important, just like a tactical situation where avoidance is the best plan, same rule applies here. The article above seems to claim to go into hiding immediately, but until it gets close to your house, it’s not required. But when it does, I will sure be considering isolation at my house.

                            • #82549
                              Brian from Georgia
                              Participant

                                It might not be the actual virus you have to worry about, but the panic it generates instead.

                              • #82550
                                Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                Moderator

                                  I’m not buying N95 masks, or respirators, or tyvek suits.

                                  Well as a Rationalist I already have the above and more, however I acquired this long before any Ebola threat. Which is why I had already brought this up in the Recent Ebola Outbreak/Epidemic. If you have waited to acquire these items it will cost more in money and availability.

                                  1) This bug is only a day’s plane ride away from the U.S.

                                  2) It is transmissible enough that professionals in hazmat suits are getting infected – aerosol and droplet size particles, even if it’s not officially “airborne”.

                                  3) In the long run, I do not see how it can be contained… Therefore, eventually it will become a fact of life in this country. 6 months from now? 2 years from now?

                                  4) Assuming it does not mutate to become less lethal, WHEN it becomes a fact of life, it will kill at least half the people that get it. (Rate of infection of a given population is up in the air… 1% of those exposed? 5%? 20%? Nobody seems to know.)

                                  1) As are all infectious threats.

                                  2) Professionals in hazmat suits? Maybe they will increase level of personal protection now that that young woman has been infected, but they have not been wearing full protection. The level of protection is only at the droplet/particle protection level.

                                  3) The current evidence doesn’t fully support that, despite both mistakes and even incompetence. Time will tell.

                                  4) WHEN it becomes a fact of life? Again too early to support that assumption. Remember you currently have a greater chance of dying from Influenza than Ebola.

                                  And its got a 50-70% mortality rate.

                                  The Ebola mortality rate historically has been 50-90%, the current outbreak has been on the lower end. Additionally the survival rate of an underfed impoverished African will be lower than a healthy Westerner.

                                  My advice is prudent precautions depending on your local situation.

                                  I already have sufficient supplies to sustain me through a significant event regardless of type, this is a lifestyle for me, not an emergency stock up situation. If for whatever reason you have not already prepared and wish this to be your motivation to do so. Great, I however prepare for all contingencies so I don’t have to jump through hoops every time a new threat comes along.

                                  Additionally lets say your Spouse is reluctant to prepare and you use this threat to coerce him/her, if this doesn’t end up being a big deal you will have become the “sky is falling” alarmist.

                                  We all have to analyze available data and make choices we feel are correct for us and our household.

                                  It might not be the actual virus you have to worry about, but the panic it generates instead.

                                  Guaranteed!

                                  For me this is just one of many possible threats. I have made prudent preparations that will help me survive, this knowledge allows me to feel confident as is possible for whatever confronts me.

                                • #82551
                                  Palmetto
                                  Participant

                                    There is another way to view this: Crisis Management. It goes along the lines of what Rahm Emanuel meant when he said, “You never let a serious crisis go to waste.” Crisis Management is the strategy of using a crisis to move populations to do things they would never consider under normal conditions. But Emanuel only let part of the secret out of the bag. The full scope of Crisis Management strategy is to CREATE the crisis, then demonstrate the solution that you want people to adopt which moves them rapidly toward your political goals.

                                    If you wanted to rapidly disarm, subjugate and depopulate large regions of the country with greatly reduced risk of resistance and do it in a manner that looks justified in the public eye to the point of gaining public support and approval, can you think of a better way to do it than with the threat of a gruesome, deadly, highly contagious disease?

                                    Instead of rounding people up for “reeducation camps” they could be herded into “quarantine camps” while their homes and property are stripped for “decontamination.” (Goodbye prepper stockpiles and weapons)

                                    Of course, once people are in “quarantine camps” they all happen to contract the disease and die of complications – who is going to go into one of the camps to verify the story? And of course all the bodies will have to be incinerated to contain the disease. (goodbye to the politically incorrect)

                                    How would someone resist this? Shoot “healthcare workers” who come to “evacuate” your family to the camps? Anyone who does so will be immediately seen as a nut and a monster and a menace who is spreading a deadly disease. The same thing for anyone who “goes on the lam.” If someone is labeled as a potential disease carrier who is going to trust them or help them? Anyone who saw them wouldn’t be able to turn them in fast enough.

                                    Fear and panic are huge motivators – even if they are manufactured and trumped up.

                                    If this isn’t endgame strategy it sure would do until the endgame strategy gets here.

                                    Hopefully I just have a wild imagination.

                                  • #82552
                                    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
                                    Moderator

                                      If this isn’t endgame strategy it sure would do until the endgame strategy gets here.

                                      There are many things we can influence and many we will just have to react to.

                                      If this or any other situation is used as a direct attack on our Freedoms does it really change anything?

                                      We are preparing for our survival from any and all threats to include threats to our Rightful Liberty.

                                      If we have many more years to prepare it will be a great blessing, however if things happen tomorrow our path is the same regardless.

                                      One day the preparations will be over even if we want more time.

                                    • #82553
                                      JohnyMac
                                      Participant

                                        I am not worried as the .gov is all over it.

                                        Mmmm “second Dallas Nurse With Ebola flew to Cleveland after exposure.”

                                        LOL :wacko:

                                      • #82554
                                        Lloyd
                                        Participant

                                          From a guy I know who is a police Lt in the DFW area…

                                          I am geographically and personally close to the “epicenter” of this mess. I am unable to say everything I want to say here. Several people in my immediate AO are directly connected to this issue either by marriage or blood relations. I am four (4) degrees of separation from “Patient Zero.” A couple of people who are important to me are two (2) degrees of separation from him.

                                          The bullet points below are accurate. If a particular point appears to be a general statement, applicable to most any government or political situation in America…it’s not. Recommend you Google any unfamiliar terms or phrases. This will be my final post in this thread. Sorry, but I am unable to comment any further.

                                          Some of the people in charge of critical functions within the Dallas County government are breathtakingly incompetent, stupid, and inept. Some of these same people are functionally illiterate. This is nothing new but the average citizen still would not believe how foolish some of these people are.
                                          Good people made mistakes in a health care setting because of government-mandated policies and procedures they have been forced to endure for years. There was no incompetence or malice behind their actions.
                                          Early mistakes were compounded by the acts of untrained fools and political hacks. Clown shoes showed up everywhere but mostly on county and federal feet.
                                          Mark Twain was right when he said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”
                                          Political appointees within some local and county subdivisions are primarily concerned about preventing panic and fear. Notions of transparency and publicly disclosing the true size of the problem are repugnant to them.
                                          Public declarations made by a certain federal agency do not align with the science-based data contained within that same agency’s reports published well prior to “Patient Zero’s” arrival in the U.S.
                                          Some government employees are dedicated to staying “on script” no matter what facts are presented to them.
                                          Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners are not the only people who firmly believe in “position over submission.”
                                          The Dunning-Kruger effect is in full effect all over the place but it gets worse the higher up the chain of command one goes.
                                          Field practitioners with years of real-world experience have already decided that their own safety and the safety of their families trumps orders given by clowns hiding in their offices. They will no longer be dictated to by clowns. The clowns still do not realize this.
                                          Some decision makers will not recognize or acknowledge the definition of the word, “aerosol” in our current context, even when it is physically shown to them in a medical or science journal. These same people apparently believe that a dust mask and safety glasses are adequate for untethered spacewalks.
                                          The nurses were right. They did not exaggerate and they are not lying. Go watch the interviews.
                                          Numerous individuals are under quarantine in many different locations.
                                          There is a distinct difference between “quarantine” and “isolation.” Go read.
                                          The State of Texas has had enough of the clowns. Adult supervision is finally being implemented. Regardless of their origins, clowns are slowly being controlled or cast out of the critical decision making process.
                                          Speculation abounds but none of us will know for a fact how good or bad things really are until 6 November 2014.

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