Doom, Defeat & Solutions
March 23, 2014 at 10:54 pm #59095D CloseModerator
Max Velocity posted on his blog 03DEC13:
I recently posted about ‘More on the SWAT Threat‘. I am enjoying the fact that my posts are generating some really good comments from a generally high quality of commenter right now. I am beginning to see myself as just the initiator of a discussion: Pose a post, step back: “Discuss!”
However, the SWAT post generated a bit of doom and gloom and it was described as a realistic but gloomy post. Well, not one to give you problems without solutions, that is why I am writing today. Here is one comment that just came in, with my response:
Expat 12/3/2013 at 10:52 am
Yes a gloomy post for sure and about time too. I’ve not seen a truer or more realistic post. The only problem is the part after TEAM. That part was wishful thinking.
A couple of years ago I took the plunge and retired to build my 20 acre retreat in the safest and most sustainable place I could find. I didn’t mention defensible as I could not figure out a way to do that.
I’ve a nephew who’s a LOE and SWAT team member. Nothing I could prep for would even slow them down at 0 dark 30. They take no chances and do not question their orders.
Get on their radar and you’re screwed. Now multiply him by a few million organized, trained and armed men against you and….well nobody you can count on to put their lives and their families safety on the line and you get the idea.
Society will not collapse to the point where you can go on the offensive and have any support of the general population.
Organize a militia and you’ll be infiltrated and taken out and the media will call it just. Hell, they’ll probably spell your name wrong too.
Max Velocity12/3/2013 at 11:49 am
I disagree: the post is designed to wake you up to reality, not encourage defeatism. In your response you are still focused on the static ‘prepper retreat’. Look, if this goes kinetic, if you have people to fight with, who are trained, you will not be defeated. If you focus on a static defense and are targeted, then yes you will be destroyed. That is why you need to move the mindset away from the static retreat. Yes, as an initial response to collapse and SHTF, but not to stay and fight the hordes.
I recently wrote a post ‘The Strategy: Rural/Urban‘ and within that post I gave some pointers about how we can win the upcoming nastiness. I mean, it seems a pretty foregone conclusion that it is coming. Simply, Statist tyrannists do what Statist tyrannists do. It’s like the scorpion riding on the frog. They have to push for more control and less freedom because that is what they are about. But just because you plan to ride the tiger, doesn’t mean it will work out for you.
When I posit about being caught by a SWAT raid, I am pointing out our current situation (police state) and how it is a very bad thing to be caught by such a raid, chest thumping aside. It doesn’t mean that if it comes to a shooting war you will lose to these guys unless you decide to try the standard ‘hide in a fortified house’ tactic, and get noticed, so they come and get you. Anyway, in case you missed the strategy pointers in that previous post, because they were tucked down there after a discussion on urban fighting, here they are again:
This is the strategy that I would recommend if facing SHTF with the potential for tyranny from enemies foreign and/or domestic:
Abandon the urban areas. They are centers of gravity not only for massive killing by the Regime of the former entitlement types, and general rioting and killing, but they are also where they will concentrate force. The Regime will also need the main supply routes (MSR) between the urban areas.
Move your tribe to the rural areas with a supply of food and the ability to grow more. Move the families to protected areas. But don’t get too comfortable – be able to pack up and move if the tides of war wash your way. If you look at the history of this kind of SHTF, such as Europe in the 1940′s, you will see the massive killing and tides of war that went on. Often it was only the ‘big battalions’ that survived.
Operate in vehicle unfriendly areas such as forest, swamps and mountains. Do not operate in ‘tank country’.
The Regime will ultimately need the rural areas for food and resources. This is where you are. This is where the guerrilla campaign is waged. Hit and run. The federalized forces will be vehicle based and flailing around in the boonies – although never underestimate them, if they get some good units together that will be very effective. Hit them on the MSRs and if they come to raid into your territory.
But the enemy force will be concentrated in urban areas? I ask you – so what? They have to come out to try and defeat you. They will establish FOB/COP locations, mainly trying to control areas and defend MSRs. That is where you concentrate force and conduct limited raids, as well as ambush on convoys moving on the MSRs.
Remember, due to the absence of morality in modern federalized murder teams, you can’t just pick up your musket and leave the farm for the front lines. Hellfire missiles will rain down into domestic terrorist houses. Villages will be surrounded by einsatzgruppen and rounded up/wiped out. Families will be killed. You have to get them out and protect them. You must move them to a defended hidden area. It will be hot/cold/miserable. It is the long war.
What is to be hoped is that over time the Resistance will gain enough momentum to form larger units and move to the ‘big battalion’ model of full civil war. If that happens, offensive operations can be conducted to destroy the elites in their urban protected areas. Until then, operate in rural areas in small light infantry teams.
You don’t have to go out to the total back of beyond to fight your campaign, at least initially prior to total SHTF. For example, round here in Northern Virginia even, this close to Mordor, it is a rural area, a network of a multitude of small farms, fields and woods. With an auxiliary support network, and having stashed your family somewhere, bands of fighters could operate here very well. It’s very similar to rural Northern Ireland, in fact. What that does NOT mean is sitting in one of those rural houses, in a defensive position, which is what a prepper retreat is. It means a mobile campaign supported by a network, moving and operating within a dispersed AO.
To continue the fictional Northern Virginia Example, such an area could be ‘pacified’ pretty quickly with a full military campaign in a full SHTF situation, particularly if ethics were thrown to the side. But what we have been worrying about with the SWAT raids is the nearer tyranny, the twilight zone of soft tyranny. I mean, I’m not worried about a SWAT team in full SHTF – because then the game changes; I won’t be sleeping in my bed at home, and if they are picked up inbound to my location by an OP they will be ambushed and wiped out. So we have to compare apples and apples. In that way, if we shortly move to FedGov going full retard, maybe gun confiscation as a precipitating event or whatever, then it is not yet full SHTF (i.e. collapse), it is just further along the current tyranny continuum. So, under those circumstances of not-yet-open-rebellion, we are more interested in things like community defense groups to repel federal SWAT raids aimed at swamping a neighborhood and confiscating weapons. Clearly a community defense group will only go so far, because if you resist in place your neighborhood just became a prepper retreat writ large and they will lay siege and bring everything to bear on it to burn it down. If you were hit and initially fought them off, you have to bug out. Hence, the area mobile plan, pre-SHTF, when you operate in support of liberty across an AO. That is not full civil war, that is in the gray area of resistance operations, both low and high profile.
What is suggested above could be used, utilizing small cells of fighters supported by a network, not just for an actual neighborhood, which suffers a number of issues: a neighborhood defense group is good when facing marauders/looters/criminals. It is a single defended neighborhood or farm/village that has a defense plan. Good for post-SHTF when it is the populace and not FedGov going full retard. Fighting off the zombies etc. But if facing pre-SHTF FedGov tyranny, it is not good, because it is just Waco. It’s a single point to lay siege to and burn down, families and all.
When facing FedGov tyranny operations, such as gun confiscation or whatever, it may be better to be dispersed but connected. Thus, a family facing a SWAT raid can repel them long enough for a QRF to arrive, relive them, and get them out. Then the attacked family is evacuated through the network. This is all, of course, for action during the ‘twilight zone’ of soft/hardening tyranny before reaching full SHTF ’weapons free’.
Such a plan requires communications, mobility, a network, dispersal but within easy reach, and also a commitment to come to each others support. Such tactical QRF teams could assemble at pre-designated rally point depending on the location of the raid, do the job, and disperse. They could also assemble for follow-up reprisal operating against the home base of the SWAT team, because payback is a bitch and anyone who attacks innocent families against their oath is an oath-breaker. The penalty for oath-breaking and treason is death, sentence to be carried out immediately.
Anyway, those are just some fictional thoughts as to a couple of options in the fictional circumstance that the FedGov goes full retard and actually commits tyranny against the American people. Of course, that will never happen, right?
And what does such a strategy require? I wonder. TEAM. COORDINATION. TRAINING.
March 24, 2014 at 6:04 pm #59096MaxKeymaster
Note: This is not Max’s response/content. Just a glitch from the transition to subscription.
I think you’re spot on about organization. We have a ways to go, but I’m far more optimistic than I was six months ago.
What we’re lacking, as far as I can tell, is the shadow government to administer local areas IAW with FREEFOR aims. The current .gov entities may, but they’re so addicted to fed money they’ll be at an utter loss for some time. Smaller, however you define that, communities will be fine, depending on demographics.
Tactically, perhaps even operationally, we’re making progress.
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